Morocco World News/ Maghreb Intelligence
Morocco World News/ Maghreb Intelligence
New York, December 15, 2011
According to informed sources in Washington, the White House has been closely monitoring the situation for months in the Middle East and North Africa. Barack Obama often asks for detailed notes on developments in the Arab countries. Taken aback by the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the U.S. administration does not want to leave anything to chance. Thus, a report by the CIA landed a few days ago on the desk of Barack Obama. It classifies the Arab regimes based on their stability and evolution towards democracy. According to Langley experts, Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt are the most reassuring cases.
According to the report, the three countries should witness in the medium term, a peaceful evolution toward democracy. The example of Turkey supports this analysis. Military institutions in Tunisia and Egypt and the monarchy in Morocco are strong guarantees that the new political situation in these countries will not deteriorate.
Jordan, Kuwait and Libya are also highly rated. Despite some difficulties, the regimes of these countries will also tend to move towards greater political openness and democracy. Less advanced than the first three, their political systems have several advantages for establishing democracies: strong monarchical legitimacy in Jordan and Kuwait and new revolutionary legitimacy in Libya.
However, what most worries Washington is Syria. Based on information gathered on the ground, the CIA believes that Syria is plunging into a bloody civil war. The Baathist regime will not hold out for long and the grudge against the Alawites is very strong. Part of the army may, in a few months, turn against President Bashar Al Assad, which would precipitate the country into inextricable sectarian and clan clashes.
Another country where the situation is described as worrisome is Bahrain. The situation of calm there is fragile and rebellion, that has been brewing for several months, is real. There is a total gap between the Sunni monarchy and the people of the Shiite majority.
Yemen does not seem either to have guarantees of stability in the future. The tribal and archaic nature of the country seems to convince the CIA that the regime, even without Abdullah Saleh, is the best for right now. Any democratic opening, according to Americans, could drag the country into chaos.
Finally, Americans believe that the regime of Saudi Arabia can still hold out under its current form for years to come. The succession to the throne should not be a problem in the next ten years.
Algeria, for its part, remains a complete mystery. While Americans are practically certain that Abdelaziz Bouteflika will not seek another term and that even the most influential members of the military are either sick or at the end of their careers and even their lives, they are not sure whether the military can continue to pull the strings of a rump civilian power. “The shock-waves of the democratic changes taking place in Tunisia, Morocco and Libya are being fully felt in Algeria. Public opinion, which until now has been adopting a wait-and-see posture can quickly change position,” said an American journalist who had access to the CIA report.
Translation by Samir Bennis and Editing by Benjamin Villanti
Morocco World News has exclusive partnership with Maghreb Intelligence and is the only entity allowed to publish its content in English. The English version of the story is © Morocco World News. This article can only be published as is with the link to Morocco World News, unless a written consent is given.
