ISTANBUL - Norwegian Professor Randers says the average global temperature will rise by more than 2 degrees in 40 years' time.
ISTANBUL – Norwegian Professor Randers says the average global temperature will rise by more than 2 degrees in 40 years’ time.
The average global temperature will rise by more than 2 degrees in 40 years’ time, said Jorgen Randers, a Norwegian academic, professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, on Tuesday.
Stating that CO2 emissions from energy consumption would peak in 2030, Randers said “We will reach very risky degrees. Temperature and sea level will rise. The average global temperature will rise by more than two degrees, causing serious problems.”
Discussion over “2052 – a global forecast for the next 40 years” was held on December 3 at Bogazici University with the participation of Professor Gulay Barbarosoglu, rector of Bogazici University, Umit Bilge, Professor in Industrial Engineering at Bogazici University, Turkish academicians and many students as well as various attendees interested in climate issues.
What Randers mainly forecast was that world population will peak in 2040 reaching 8 billion and even hit ten billion in 2050s; world GDP growth will slow down; global consumption will peak in 2045; energy use will peak in 2040; world CO2 emissions will peak in 2030; and food will satisfy the demand – but not the need.
Speaking about the resources and energy in the world, Randers said there would be enough water and food for the next 40 years to cover the ‘demand’, which he said is not the same as ‘need’. He pointed out that the use of renewable energy would increase while coal, oil, and gas use would decrease.
In terms of poverty, on the other hand, he was more pessimist saying there would be more poverty both in the rich and the poor world. Three billion people will face poverty around 2050, he added. “People will starve not because of insufficient food, but because of less income and less productivity,” professor said.
“The productivity will continue to decline as it declined over the last forty years,” Randers said, “Productivity will grow, but encounter obstacles. The gross domestic product will grow, but more and more slowly.”
“World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect – but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis,” he said, adding consumption would stagnate as the world society would have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation.
Finally he talked about things that should be done to solve the possible problems and suggested using a climate-friendly energy system, practising 1-child policy, building smaller houses with thicker walls, banning the use of coal, oil, and gas from 2024, and establishing supra-national institutions in order to ensure that the next generations live in a better world.