Toronto – The future is looking good for Morocco on several key levels, namely political stability, social standards and economic outlook, according to a new report from BMI Research.
Despite the continuing delays in forming a coalition government, Morocco’s 2017 outlook continues to be positive. The report, published Wednesday, predicts limited risks resulting from Head of Government, Abdelilah Benkirane’s ongoing challenges to form the country’s new government.
Forming the government became more complex and challenging than anyone had anticipated when Bekirane was given the task more than four months ago. Conditions forced on him by other parties such as the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and the Popular Movement (MP), who each insisted on the exclusion of the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP), forced Benkirane and the negotiations into a full stall. At one point the RNI had also insisted on the exclusion of the Istiqlal Party (PI).
It is thought by the authors of the BMI Research report that fundamental differences in party ideologies are at the heart of the standstill. Benkirane’s Party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), espouse a moderate Islamist doctrine battling government corruption. The RNI runs on a more liberal social platform.
There is also an interesting theory that the delay could end up being of benefit to the Royal Family by way of curtailing the PJD’s growing popularity. Although the report does not indicate any concern about the PJD challenging the authority of King Mohamed VI, the current blockage could result in stunting the party’s growth.
Recent unrest in the northern Rif region is also not thought to be of great concern regarding the country’s stability. This is because the recent clashes with government officials and security forces continue to be occurring in isolated pockets, such as al Hoceima where clashes occurred over the recent death of a fishmonger when he was crushed in a garbage truck during the confiscation of his merchandise by government officials.
The tragedy was taken up as a battle-cry in the areas against government corruption and security force abuse. Researchers at BMI Research, however, do not consider the tensions to be a real threat to overall Moroccan political and social security.
Recent reforms initiated by King Mohammed VI are also being lauded for aiding in the strengthening of the constitutional government, with moves such as the 2011 constitution which somewhat limited the King’s authority.
Although Morocco’s 2017 outlook does appear solid, with a predicted GDP rise of 4.3%, the report does warn, however, that cracks could potentially appear if the coalition government formation doesn’t happen soon.
Long-term projections continue to look good, with Morocco placing 4th out of 19 countries in the MENA region, and scoring 69.8% out of 100 for Long-Term Political Risk. Reasons for the continued confidence include Morocco’s commitment to becoming an import/export hub in the region, which makes it extremely attractive to investors.