A model shows a death toll in Morocco that is 16 times worse if confinement starts on March 24 instead of the 18th.
Rabat – Using a scientific model, analysts estimate Morocco is saving thousands of lives by implementing “confinement” earlier rather than later.
Framing confinement as a “state of emergency,” Luxe Radio published the results from its model on Wednesday, March 18.
The model presents two scenarios with staggering results. The first scenario supposes March 18 as the start date for confinement and leads to 480 fatalities.
The second scenario pushes the start date six days later, to Tuesday, March 24. The model forecasts a jump in the death toll to 7,680.
To reach the conclusion, analysts made a number of observations and assumptions.
First, analysts assumed the real number of COVID-19 cases in Morocco as of March 18 was 1,500, above the official confirmed count of 49. The article cites the small number of people who have been tested as justification for the hypothesis.
The report also notes the increasing number of confirmed cases since the first COVID-19 case in Morocco. The model also looks at the average growth rate per day of cases in countries like France and the United Kingdom.
In both scenarios, the model presumes 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% intensive care, and 2.5% resuscitation. The resulting mortality rates for those who catch the coronavirus are 1% for the earlier confinement date and 4% for the later date, taking into account the capacity of hospitals to treat severe cases.
Analysts use models widely to link experiment to theory in the research and science spheres.
With Morocco recording its third fatality today, the government is taking increasing measures to contain the outbreak. Moroccan authorities declared a state of health emergency that will go into effect today at 6 p.m.