Donald Trump and Joe Biden are evenly matched in a new poll, with advantage for Trump in crucial battleground states.
Rabat – The presidential elections in the United States are becoming more unpredictable as a CNN poll shows Biden and Trump in a neck-and-neck race. Biden had opened a small lead against Trump amid a problematic COVID-19 response and national protests, but that lead appears to have waned.
According to CNN, Trump and Biden both fall within the poll’s margin of error, with Biden at 50% and Trump at 46%. More than half of American voters indicated they were “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming presidential election. Although the new numbers are only from one of many polls, any new figures carry weight in US elections.
Whether the CNN poll is an outlier or indicates shifting trends remains to be seen. An August 13 Fox News poll still showed Biden ahead by seven points.
In June Biden opened a significant lead, with Trump’s approval falling by seven points. Biden led Trump by 14 points in June, but the CNN poll indicates that advantage has narrowed, even after Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Well-known pollster Nate Silver warned on Monday August 17 that fluctuations in poll numbers are to be expected in the coming weeks. Both parties are set to host their national conventions and the candidates will feature in debates. Silver’s respected polling organization Fivethirtyeight currently gives Biden a 70% chance of winning the election, but similar predictions in 2016 failed to materialize.
The Democratic National Convention kicks off today, hosting a variety of establishment Democrats — and even Republican John Kasich — as speakers. The event will see speeches by Bill and Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Bernie Sanders will also address virtual attendees, a key figure in the progressive wing of the party together with names such as rising star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The Republican National Convention will begin on August 24 with “honoring the great American story” as its theme. Republicans aim to highlight individual stories of Americans who have benefited from Trump’s policies and brand the Republican party as representing the “real America.”
The coming months will be crucial for Biden and Trump as both have the potential to either implode through gaffs or revelations, or generate new momentum at the expense of the other.