Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) predicted that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will record a 4.6% growth in 2021 after the 7% recession it witnessed in 2020.
According to the institution’s latest report on Morocco’s macroeconomic indicators, the country will quickly exit the COVID-induced recession period and the national economy will partially recover.
The HCP also predicted Morocco’s unemployment rate to decline from 12.8% in 2020 to 11.1% in 2021.
The institution forecast that the average cereal production in Morocco will reach 75 million quintals during the 2020-2021 agricultural season.
According to the HCP, the country’s agriculture and fisheries would push the primary sector’s growth up 11% in 2021. In 2020, the sector recorded a 7.1% decline.
The secondary sector would also overcome its 6.3% decline in 2020 and improve by 4.1% in 2021, the HCP predicted.
The Commission expects processing industries, such as food, textile, and clothing, to benefit from an increasing European demand this year.
The mining sector is also set to benefit from growing global demand. The added value from exporting phosphates and its derivatives, for instance, is set to record a 3.2% growth between 2020 and 2021.
The construction sector will be another major beneficiary of Morocco’s economic recovery. The HCP forecast that public infrastructure investments will drive the sector’s growth from -9.8% in 2020 to 5.1% in 2021.
Meanwhile, mechanical, metallurgical, and electrical industries will record more modest recoveries due to the persistent underperformance of the automotive and aeronautical sectors at the global level, the HCP wrote.
Finally, Morocco’s tertiary sector is set to witness a growth of 3.4% in 2021. In 2020, it recorded a decline of 6.8%.
The HCP expects the growth to result from an increased domestic demand on services, such as transportation, especially after Morocco’s national vaccination campaign against COVID-19.
According to HCP, the only sector that will likely remain in the red in 2021 is tourism.