Rabat – Following long and arduous discussions with the conflicting parties in the Western Sahara dispute and the UN Security Council, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres finally confirmed today his appointment of Staffan de Mistura as his new personal envoy for Western Sahara.
Reports of Guterres’s choice of De Mistura to lead the UN-led political process in Western started making the rounds in diplomatic circles back in September. But the long history of last-minute rebounds and surprises in the Sahara dossier was enough to suggest that no one should be getting ahead of themselves about the UN having finally succeeded in finding the right profile to rekindle the dimming flames of the hyped “new momentum.”
It is widely known that before submitting De Mistura’s appointment to the Security Council for consideration, Guterres had sought and secured the greenlight of Algeria, Morocco, and the Polisario on the replacement of Horst Kohler, who resigned over two years ago citing “health reasons.”
With De Mistura’s appointment now a done deal, many well-wishing followers of the Sahara conflict may be pardoned to see in this choice yet another “welcome,” “historic,” “significant,” or “determining” first step toward a much-desired “mutually agreed upon,” “sustainable,” “lasting,” or “credible” political solution to the long-running regional conflict.
But can the veteran UN diplomat deliver a long-overdue solution following decades of deep-rooted mutual mistrust and two years of political paralysis following the now waning optimism regarding the Kohler-inspired “new momentum”?
Read also: The Uncertain Future of Kohler’s ‘New Momentum’ in Western Sahara
Hostilities have recently escalated in Western Sahara, particularly in the apparent failure of UN efforts to cool tempers and convince the conflicting parties to find a common ground.
As part of the normalization agreement between Morocco and Israel, the Trump administration recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This has significantly shifted the discourse around the Sahara conflict, with an increasing number of observers now arguing that a solution within the framework of Morocco’s autonomy initiative is the only way out of the Western Sahara gridlock.
In circles sympathetic to the Polisario Front, however, the US’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty appears to have only refueled their overzealous commitment to the separatist front’s statehood aspirations.
For instance, in dramatic contrast to the overwhelming diplomatic consensus in favor of a compromise-based and pragmatic political solution – which many have rightly interpreted as a vindication of Morocco’s stance – pro-Polisario voices launched a counter-offensive to convince the Biden administration to ignore its predecessor’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
This has not borne the desired fruits, but it does not mean that Polisario and its supporters will forgo their “buried” self-determination dreams anytime soon. As such, it goes without saying that De Mistura has a difficult and delicate task ahead of him.
As the Italian-Swedish diplomat prepares to replace Kohler, whose two-year stint renewed hopes and rallied observers around what has since been called a new momentum, the question does not even seem to be whether De Mistura can outperform Kohler.
Read also: Western Sahara: What Horst Kohler’s Resignation Means for the Political Process
For many, including the UN Secretary-General himself, the main question is whether the new personal envoy can give a new life to what Kohler started. In other words, will De Mistura be another Kohler; can he come close to convening around the same negotiating table two diametrically camps for trust-building?
Kohler resigned from his post of personal envoy in May 2019, citing health reasons and after inspiring minimal but noted headway in addressing the irreconcilable positions of Morocco, Algeria, and the Polisario Front over Western Sahara.
The parties did not even sit at the same table during the famed and much-celebrated Geneva discussions. But the fact that the meetings even happened was enough for the majority of observers to see in them harbingers of a better future for the UN’s mediation efforts in the decades-long dispute.
With Morocco insisting that its Autonomy Plan is all it can offer and the Polisario Front clinging to its self-determination dreams, most UN-led discussions to date have ended in frustration and fears of future escalations. So the appointment of a UN special envoy to Western Sahara is surely a necessary start.
An envoy might be able to negotiate a temporary de-escalation, which might pave the way for a way forward even if a complete reset is unrealistic at this point. Thus, a more robust UN-led political process in this post-Guerguerat moment would provide for the resumption of Morocco-Polisario-Algeria negotiations about the status of the entire disputed territory (including Algerian and Mauritanian participation).
Read also: Western Sahara: Guterres Remains Confident a Solution is Possible
Kohler’s resignation followed months of inactivity and perceived stagnation, and Guterres, who had described the German diplomat as arguably the most effective UN envoy to Western Sahara since 2007, predictably struggled to find a suitable replacement.
However, despite the momentum he helped build, the uncertainty, hesitation, and stagnation that followed Kohler’s resignation appear to have resurrected suspicions that the ideological and expectations gaps between the two conflicting camps are just too wide and irreconcilable.
Guterres, though, has remained hopeful. Prior to the appointment of De Mistura, the UN chief stated that his next personal envoy will be tasked with keeping alive the faith and respect for diplomacy that Kohler rekindled during his two years in office. “It is essential that the momentum is maintained,” he declared.
Read also: UN Representative Omar Hilale Teaches CNN Western Sahara Facts
De Mistura possesses over 3 decades of experience with the UN in conflict-ridden regions, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Rwanda, Somalia, and Sudan. He has led negotiation processes; supervised reconstruction and development efforts; and overseen elections under challenging conditions.
Many of De Mistura’s most prominent roles have been as a mediator seeking to end wars and build understanding in war-torn nations. He has led the development and humanitarian assistance efforts under challenging conditions, as well as promoted political dialogue and overseen elections. According to his associates and former colleagues, he is an example of diplomacy because of his leadership, determination, and humanity.
This should at least be enough indication that De Mistura possesses a highly qualified profile to embark on a near-impossible mission of finding a common ground between two diametrically opposed camps.
Although Kohler’s two-year tenure as envoy was largely successful, some critics contend that the proponents of the much-vaunted “new momentum” rhetoric were deluded in thinking that three meetings and feel-good UN reports were enough to signal a forthcoming end to decades of mutual distrust and conflicting expectations.
In Kohler’s defense, however, the “new momentum” was not really about miraculously resolving Western Sahara’s convoluted dispute with bouts of roundtable discussions and optimistic declarations.
It was, at bottom, about instilling hope and convincing inveterate opponents to come to negotiations “without preconditions” to explore a better alternative to an unsatisfactory status quo. That is, it was about nurturing the encouraging symbol of the parties that have been at conflicting odds, finally agreeing to sit around the same table to agree to disagree with regard to possible political solutions.
This was merely symbolic, of course. But as American journalist Ta-Nehesi Coates has rightly and aptly put it, there is nothing merely symbolic about symbols. “Symbols,” Coate writes in the introduction to his 2017 book We Were Eight Years in Power, “don’t just represent reality but can become tools to change it.”
And so, as De Mistura prepares to walk into Western Sahara’s diplomatic minefield, he would do best not to elide the obvious: The uncomfortable truth that this is a complex, almost intractable conflict.
Which means that his first task should not be to want to inspire a new beginning, a new dawn. As a political solution seems to be the only tangible way out of the Western Sahara conflict, De Mistura’s immediate triumph or failure will boil down to whether he can rally the conflicting parties around the “new momentum” symbol.
