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Join on Telegram Rabat – Tunisian President Kais Saied appears to have prioritized lowering domestic gas prices through a symbolic gesture to Algeria over its long-term neutral stance on the Western Sahara dispute. Tunisia on Friday suddenly ended decades of neutrality on the dossier by welcoming Brahim Ghali, the leader of the separatist Polisario Front.
The symbolic visit of the Polisario leader to Tunis, ostensibly just to attend a Japanese-African Union development conference, appears to be a shift in foreign policy driven by domestic economics.
Gas crisis in Tunisia
Tunisia, which relies on Algeria for 65% of its natural gas, has faced ever-rising domestic energy prices amid a global economic downturn marked by rising food and fuel prices. In April, Tunisian officials were forced to announce that the government would be raising domestic fuel prices by 3%, every month for the rest of the year.
In the meantime, ever since the controversial referendum that has given him vast new powers, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied appears desperate to show Tunisians that he can provide political stability and reduce economic hardships..
The constitutional referendum has been roundly condemned internationally as a step backwards for Tunisian democracy, with the Tunisian opposition and many independent observers describing the move as a “constitutional coup.”
As a result, Saied has been hard at work to prove the legitimacy of his newly empowered presidency amid difficult economic times in Tunisia.
Algeria has shown a willingness to assist Tunisia, despite its own dire economic issues, notably by providing the Tunisian government with a $300 million loan at the end of last year. The loan allowed Tunisia to pay off some of its debt, and likely provided a “sweetener” for further diplomatic engagement in favor of Algeria’s regional priorities.
Tunisia-Algeria relations
One large factor waying down on Tunisians’ incomes have been rising energy prices that have impacted local businesses and individuals alike. With only 35% of its gas needs produced domestically, Tunisia’s president looked at its western neighbor for relief.
Saied’s need to appease Algeria has been apparent for years. His first international visit after winning the presidency in 2020 was a trip to Algiers, which proved a sign of things to come.
President Saied and Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune have had a series of interactions since, from repeated phone calls and diplomatic niceties, to formal visits to each others’ capitals.
It appears that a key part of recent discussions between the two domestically powerful presidents has been the topic of Algeria’s gas supply to Tunisia. In a recent meeting in July, the two appear to have made a bargain.
The bargain
Tunisia has now ended its neutral stance on the Western Sahara dispute, in favor of a symbolic gesture to Algeria. By personally inviting and welcoming Polisario leader Brahim Ghali to Tunis, Saied has indicated a significant foreign policy shift in exchange for a closer relationship with Algiers.
While no significant details about the recent interactions between Saied and Tebboune are publicly available, Algeria has in recent years shown that it’s happy to weaponize its natural gas reserves to force diplomatic changes.
Angering Morocco therefore appears to be a price President Saied is willing to pay to bring down domestic fuel prices, raise Tunisian living standards, and build political legitimacy for his presidency. Tunisia is likely to see the price of Algerian gas fall, and its relationship with Algiers deepen.
The two countries, which recently reopened land borders following COVID-19 related closures, appear to have agreed upon a quid-pro-quo that provides Tunisia with some economic relief, and Algeria a minor diplomatic “win.”
Having endured years of diplomatic irrelevance, Algeria’s regime is likely to present Tunisia’s welcoming of Ghali domestically as a shift in diplomatic momentum. In those years, Morocco welcomed key endorsements of its Autonomy Plan to end the Sahara dispute from key trade partners such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, as well as the US’ outright recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the region.
Algerian energy politics
Within a week of Moroccan King Mohammed VI asking its international partners to clarify their stance on the Sahara dispute, Tunisia’s sudden shift away from neutrality will likely see Tunis receive the same treatment Madrid and Berlin have faced over the past year.
France, meanwhile, has increasingly been in Morocco’s corner in the geopolitical arena. Lingering distrust between Paris and Algiers has been worsened by growing economic and political cooperation between Paris and Rabat.
This has provided a strong incentive for Algiers to force a diplomatic shift in the region. After laboring through a series of diplomatic losses and back-tracking on its threats to countries moving in Morocco’s direction, Algeria is discernibly keen to create a new anti-Moroccan bloc, in an attempt to show its restless domestic population it can still wield some power internationally.
Tunisia’s new foreign policy stance appears to be the result of Algeria’s recent efforts to weaponize its natural gas reserves as a political tool. While Spain and the EU were able to push back against Algerian gas-related threats and posturing, Tunisia could ill-afford to play politics amid a lingering, rapidly deteriorating political and economic crisis.
While Madrid and Brussels were able to get Algeria to back off its threats, Saied has been in need of a quick domestic win to overcome popular unrest over the recent constitutional change and his other controversial decisions in recent months.
Yet, it is unclear whether Algeria threatened to reduce its vital gas supplies to Tunisia, as it did with Spain, or whether Tebboune offered Saied a discount in exchange for a shift of tone and policy on the Western Sahara issue.
Of these plausible readings into the rationale underlying Tunisia’s sudden decision to forgo its decades-old neutrality, the former is the most likely: Saied is keen to be seen as the person who can bring economic prosperity back to Tunisia. Yet, selling natural gas at a discounted price to Tunisia means Algerians are seeing the country’s income from gas exports reduced, in exchange for a mere gesture that will do nothing to shift the growing international consensus on the Western Sahara dispute.
At a time when Algeria can profit from its abundant natural gas amid high global prices, Algiers appears to be sacrificing its export revenues for an ideological “win.” Still, it remains to be seen whether Algerians will see the Tunisian gesture as a genuine diplomatic win, or continue to focus more on domestic economic hardships.
