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Afghanistan has once again fallen under the control of the Taliban regime following the withdrawal of US troops from the war-ravaged country. Analysts note that the fall of the Afghan central government, which occurred over a relatively short period of time, came far faster than was initially expected, indicating that the Taliban were prepared and waiting for the US troops to leave.
Now, in the wake of the complete withdrawal of foreign troops nearing completion and the Taliban firmly on the seat of power in Afghanistan, the whole world must now grapple with what the Taliban’s sudden return to power might mean.
Afghanistan
Video footage and news reports of the chaos of the Kabul airport highlight the fear that grips the nation at the prospect of renewed Taliban rule. For many within Afghanistan, particularly those who assisted the Afghan government and the US during the last few decades of war, the return of the Taliban regime carries the threat of renewed oppression and violent retribution.
While Taliban spokespersons have announced amnesty for all Afghan citizens and insist that they are more tolerant than the violent regime that fell from power in 2001, few in Afghanistan believe them. Given the group’s violent past, many Afghans now fear for their lives.
The danger the Taliban poses is acutely felt by the women who have made significant strides toward education and professional advancement since the Taliban’s fall. The Taliban was particularly notorious for their oppressive treatment of women when in power in the 1990s and early 2000s.
With only the Taliban’s up-for-interpretation statements that women can exercise their rights under Islamic law and an unexpected invitation for women to join the government as assurance, the safety and rights of Afghan women and girls remains a primary concern.
Since seizing Kabul, Taliban spokespersons have made a great effort to present themselves as moderate and trustworthy. Stating that their only goal is to establish peace, security, and freedom in Afghanistan, the reborn regime continues to insist that Afghans and the outside world have nothing to fear. Recent videos that show Taliban fighters riding merry-go-rounds and bumper cars at a fair park could also be a tactical decision to soften the global community’s views of the regime.
It is important to remember, however, that promises of peace and security was the very platform that the Taliban used back in the 1990s when they rose to power from the ashes of a country devastated by years of Soviet invasions. Additionally, the Taliban’s violent tactics – including bombings and suicide attacks – have remained constant throughout the years, suggesting little change has taken place.
Claims that the regime will grant amnesty to all Afghan citizens appears at odds with alleged reports of the Taliban seeking out Afghans who assisted the US military, and the Taliban’s declaration that they have the records for every soldier that fought in the Afghan army and could call upon them when needed. While this latter decision appears to have been made in response to questions concerning the Taliban’s willingness for Afghan troops to join the regime, such a list could put many soldiers – especially women who joined the army – in harm’s way.
As such, despite the Taliban’s efforts to appear moderate, politicians around the world remain skeptical of what may come next. “The whole world is watching… It’s not a matter of trust – it’s going to be all about the actions, not the words,” the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, noted recently.
With talks continuing between the Taliban and several Afghan government officials, one must hope that the new Taliban-led government will be true to their words and restore genuine peace and stability to the region.
Global Impact
Whilst few can dispute that the sudden regime change will have a lasting impact on Afghanistan, the Taliban’s return to power will undoubtedly have a ripple effect that will impact nations around the globe.
For many countries in Europe and the surrounding region, the Taliban’s rise to power means an increase in the number of Afghan refugees. With NATO officials recently pledging to intensify evacuation efforts in Afghanistan, countries are being called upon to open their borders to those now seeking refuge from the Taliban’s rule.
Currently, the US is calling upon various commercial airlines for assistance in transporting those fleeing Afghanistan, with US Vice President Kamala Harris declaring that evacuating those at risk must be a top priority for the US and other nations. In order for evacuation efforts to succeed, however, neighboring nations must open refugee camps until the refugees can be relocated permanently.
A large number of refugees will add to the economic pressure in many countries, and will further impact the internal politics of the affected nations. In Europe, both Germany and France have expressed concern over the anticipated refugee crisis, with French President Emmanuel Macron stating that “We must anticipate and protect ourselves against major irregular migratory flows.”
With many countries already facing increased pressure at home due to COVID-19, the upcoming immigration waves are likely to encounter issues and complexities never encountered before. While many European countries are eager to avoid the issues of the 2015 immigration crisis, they can expect to see many new road bumps due to the global pandemic.
In addition to anticipating a surge in immigration, a major concern for many around the world is that Afghanistan will once again become a safe haven for extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. According to the former US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, “the Taliban are terrorists, and they’re going to support terrorists.”
The potential rise in terror attacks following the US withdrawal was evident on Thursday, August 26, when a suicide bombing by terrorist group ISIS-K killed 13 US troops and over 150 Afghan civilians. It is important to note, however, that ISIS-K is also viewed as a rival by the Taliban, begging the question of whether the US and other western powers could work with the Taliban to combat ISIS-K.
Some sources suggest that without foreign troops in the region, the Taliban will be able to focus the full force of their army on combating ISIS-K, thus helping to eliminate that particular terror threat. The Taliban could also pass on intelligence to the US to assist in airstrikes targeting ISIS-K members.
However, the recent bombing also serves to highlight the instability, violence, and struggle for power that will continue to engulf Afghanistan in the coming years. It remains to be seen whether the Taliban will have the capability to curb rival groups such as ISIS-K within the region, or if the country will spiral into even greater chaos.
Should Afghanistan become a hub for extremist groups, one will see both increased internal turmoil in Afghanistan and increased national security threats for nations around the globe.
Furthermore, the Taliban’s success will likely embolden many extremist or insurgency groups globally and in the region near Afghanistan. This is particularly a concern in Pakistan, with analysts noting that the Taliban’s rise to power may encourage the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, more commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, accelerating the radicalization and division within Pakistan.
Experts have also sounded the alarm that Somali militant group al-Shabab may attempt to emulate the Taliban should international forces withdraw from the country. While the Somali extremist group does not have the same military capabilities as the Taliban, radio announcements on pro-al-Shabab media outlets celebrating the Taliban’s rise to power indicates the inspiring influence the Taliban may have on other insurgency groups.
The Taliban’s rise to power further threatens the geopolitical status quo by potentially allowing China to gain a greater foothold in the region. Leading up to the US withdrawal of troops, Taliban leaders visited Iran, Russia, and China, clearly seeking allies abroad. Beijing’s willingness to work with the Taliban, should it benefit them, is evident in the fact that China’s is one of the few foreign embassies still in operation in Kabul.
While the Taliban’s rule also poses many regional security risks for Beijing, China’s current focus on expanding its influence abroad makes the US withdrawal and the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan a tantalizing opportunity. A China-Taliban relationship would greatly benefit the Taliban, giving them much needed foreign support – both politically and economically.. Additionally, such a partnership could provide China with access to Afghanistan’s rich mineral natural resources.
Many experts believe that, for China, the security risks posed by the Taliban’s rule will outweigh the benefits. As such, Beijing may be slow to engage fully with the Taliban, opting first to see how the situation plays out.
If, or perhaps when, China engages more fully with the Taliban, the resulting relationship could prove to be a major roadblock for the United Nations’ goal to protect the Afghan people’s civil rights. China’s policy of non-interference, as well as their own history of human right’s abuses, indicates that Beijing would be unlikely to hold the Taliban accountable for most human right’s violations in Afghanistan.
As a result, the Taliban are likely to reintroduce the harsh laws they implemented in the 1990’s while still receiving international support from Beijing. Such a development would also make it more difficult for the UN to hold the Taliban accountable without risking further conflict with China.
With political leaders around the world closely monitoring the situation in Afghanistan and looking for ways to mitigate and respond to the outcomes that may come from this change, one can expect the full impact of the Taliban’s return to power to become evident in the coming weeks, months, and even years.
