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Rabat – Scientists worldwide appear to be flummoxed by the limited public health impact of COVID-19 in Africa.
Ever since the virus first started its global spread in early 2020, predictions for Africa were dire. The 54 nations on the African continent on-average had some of the weakest health systems, an almost universal shortage of medical staff and government less able to mitigate the impact of the virus through preventative measures.
Yet after nearly two years, Africa remains the continent with the least COVID-19 deaths, while the total number of infections remains hard to estimate.
In contrast, on the economic side, Africa has faced a far worse fate compared to countries with exponentially worse COVID-19 epidemics. Yet despite the hardships inflicted on its people, the continent has been largely spared the violent protests that regularly occur in Europe.
Detection
Many experts point to the fact that African nations have not monitored and tested for COVID-19 as rigorously as most Western and Asian countries. The continent’s conflict areas, finances, rudimentary infrastructure and weaker governance have hampered testing in many African countries.
A recent study published in The Lancet stated that “analysis by WHO has concluded that the vast majority of cases of COVID-19 in Africa are not being detected.” According to the WHO, infections are likely seven times higher than the reported number, and officially recognized COVID-19 deaths are only registered in two out of three cases.
Yet, while the number of infections remains unknown, the death toll caused by the virus remains noticeably lower in Africa than in most other places.
Nations annually report the morbidly named statistic of “excess deaths,” which documents the amount of citizens that have perished above the norm. These numbers show that the impact of COVID-19 in terms of morbidity has remained relatively low amid the global crisis.
Meanwhile, amid ongoing vaccine shortages on the continent, only 10% of African nations have hit the WHO’s target of vaccinating 40% of the population. Countries that lead the continent, such as Morocco, have often done so through bilateral deals with China, granting access to much-needed vaccines.
While Europe braces for another COVID-19 impacted Christmas season facing its fifth wave of infections, Africa’s relatively mild three waves appear to have declined significantly. When asked by the Associated Press, Zimbabwean national Nyasha Ndou said that “COVID-19 is gone, when did you last hear of anyone who has died of COVID-19?”
Youthful population
The key to Africa’s relative success in limiting the number of COVID-19 related deaths appears in part to stem from its predominantly youthful population. Roughly 60% of the continental population is below 25, with 40% of the population below the age of 15.
COVID-19’s well-documented impact on elderly populations appears to be a significant factor that has kept the death toll of the virus low across the continent. According to the WHO, Africa as a whole has recorded 151,480 deaths among a population of roughly 1.2 billion. Those numbers stand in stark contrast with national death tolls around the world. India has reported 465,082 deaths, Brazil mourned 311,851 casualties, while the US faced 759,388 untimely deaths due to the virus.
Yet, while Africa’s youthful population appears to have been an advantage against the virus, it remains a handicap when contemplating the effects of the pandemic’s economic aftermath.
Economic aftermath
Young people on the continent might have escaped the worst of the virus, but they are likely to face the brunt of the economic hardship the crisis has unleashed.
A UN Development Programme report in March estimated that Africa’s pandemic-related economic crisis “will drive an increase in ‘indirect mortality’, which is the measure of people who will die by 2030 who would not have died without the economic downturn.”
In the coming decades it appears that Africa will develop another unique aspect of its COVID-19 experience, causing more deaths to children than to the elderly.
The UNDP predicts that “Indirect mortality will be dominated by child mortality under five years,” as its report highlights that “mortality of children under five years makes up 80 percent of the indirect mortality from COVID-19 in 2025 and 2030.”
As the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 virus, structural inequalities will continue to drive the true number of the crisis’ victims. Unreported and away from the media’s headlines, Africa is likely to face its true COVID-19 crisis far after other continents have moved on.
