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Washington DC –The war in the Tigray is no longer a regional dispute. The various ethnic groups involved in the fighting bring back the specter of secession in Africa. The decision of President Abiy to stop the federal troops’ military advance deep into Tigray territory gives the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) the chance to further solidify their self-rule status and set up demands for self-determination and ultimately independence.
As the one-year civil war in Ethiopia attracts more international players, its implications for Africa and the role of the African Union (AU) could be dramatic and long-lasting.
One obvious question is whether Addis Ababa would ever allow a referendum on self-determination in Tigray. After all, previous Ethiopian governments have supported the Algerian regime’s lobbying efforts to admit the so-called The Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) to the AU based on the Saharawi right to self-determination.
There are in fact obvious parallels between the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Polisario guerrilla group in Western Sahara. Indeed, they are three separatist movements.
The concept and scope of the right to self-determination has shifted since the AU accepted the self-declared SADR in 1984. In fact, the Tigray conflict is the opportune chance to reconsider the Africans decision to admit a state that does not exist except in the minds of the Algerian military rulers.
Ethiopia is well positioned to lead efforts to expel the SADR before the Tigray forces strengthen their political arguments in favor of an independent state. Disregarding the presence of so-called SADR at the AU keeps the possibility of secession of Tigray and Oromia as a viable option.
The past arguments of Algeria to recognize a self-created entity which does not have basic components of a state may have seemed convincing to many African states in 1984. However, those same claims can no longer be used to retain this fictitious “country” as a member of the AU. To argue otherwise is to open the African Union to the adhesion of a Tigray and Oromia Republics.
International law is unambiguous in how international organizations should decide the fate of certain disputed territories. But today, the TPLF has more political infrastructure to create a state in Tigray than the SADR has ever had since the Algerians “fabricated” it on their soil.
Furthermore, given that Spain rejected the validity and outcome of the 2017 Catalan referendum for independence and the European Union accepted the Spanish justifications, the AU should expel the SADR.
The hypocrisy of the AU in terms of self-determination is evident because Algeria, which established the SADR, would never support a state of Tigray. But by keeping the “Sahara Republic” as a full member of the AU, Ethiopia gives the OLA and the TPLF a valid argument to push for independence.
Interestingly, Morocco’s local autonomy plan for the Western Sahara is closer to the regional model that late Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi created for Ethiopia. A large regionalism is therefore good for the Sahara and Tigray.
With the memory of 1993 secession of Eritrea still fresh in the minds of Ethiopians, Abiy Ahmed must act soon to put an end to the separatist aspirations of Tigray and Oromo. The first step is to evict the SADR, as there is no difference between the secessionist claims of the Sahrawis and the Tigers.
