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Marrakech – As the second round of the French legislative elections approaches this Sunday, July 7, many North African countries are closely following the developments, particularly in Algeria and Morocco.
While some analysts believe that Rabat is prepared to deal with “any political component that emerges from these elections,” others argue that the situation is different in Algeria due to the heavy political and historical legacy shared by the two countries, especially regarding the issues of memory and the Harkis.
Morocco’s stance on the far-right victory
The Spanish newspaper El Confidencial claimed that although Moroccan authorities have remained silent on the matter, the pro-government press has shown a tendency to overlook the far-right ideology of the National Rally, instead focusing on the party’s potential recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
“Its position on Western Sahara is clear,” Aymeric Chaupradre, a political scientist and long-time advisor to Marine Le Pen, told Le360. “It is about recognizing in a clear and crystalline way the Moroccanness of the Sahara,” he stressed.
According to Ibrahim Oumansour, director of the Maghreb Observatory at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, the potential arrival of the far-right National Rally party next week is worrying the Maghreb countries because of “the messages that this party has begun to send out on the issue of immigration”.
He told France 24: “We have two scenarios. Either the National Rally implements its immigration program and carries out mass deportations of illegal immigrants to satisfy its electorate and dismantle the 1968 agreements that bind Algeria to France. Or it chooses not to address this issue in the name of political realism and the principle of preserving common interests.”
On the other hand, Morocco, which did not experience the same colonization as Algeria, is also following the interactions of the early French legislative elections “with interest” due to the “unique ties of friendship and strategic partnership between it and France,” according to Mohamed Bouden, a Moroccan expert in contemporary international affairs.
Bouden told France 24: “Morocco is ready for dialogue and coordination with any French political component that may come to power, whether it is the far right or the Popular Front, within the framework of the political and legal platform that guides the course of Moroccan-French relations.”
Jordan Bardella will be welcomed by Morocco if he comes to power on July 7, he added, clarifying at the same time that “the main determinant for Morocco is the protection of its supreme interests, such as the territorial unity of the Kingdom of Morocco and its sovereignty over the Sahara, as well as other economic issues.”
Reasons behind Morocco’s inclination towards the National Rally
El Confidencial highlighted three reasons that explain Morocco’s inclination towards the National Rally.
First, the party’s clear position on recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Second, the strained relationship between King Mohammed VI and President Emmanuel Macron, with the Moroccan circles of power relishing the electoral setback suffered by Macron.
Last, and most importantly, the expectation that a victory for the far-right would lead to a sharp deterioration in France’s relationship with Algeria, Morocco’s main adversary.
Algeria’s concerns and potential consequences
Algerian academic and sociologist Nasser Jabi confirmed to Maghreb Voices that “the expected rise of the far right will be the first experience in the history of relations between France and Algeria, which threatens their future,” expecting that they will go through “a turbulent period.”
According to Jabi, “the French far-right has old files related to the war of liberation, which it developed through its historical conflict with Algeria, translated by the positions of the spiritual father of the far right, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was an officer in the French army in Algeria during the war.”
This means that relations between the two countries with the presence of the far right “will go through a difficult period,” he argued, noting that “the expected positive development of the positions of the far right may be smooth with Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia, while it will be difficult with Algeria.”
The National Rally’s stance on Algeria
Former French ambassador Xavier Driencourt, who has shown affinity with the far-right and is rumored to be a potential Minister of Foreign Affairs, wrote in a recent column for Le Figaro that Bardella would radically shift France’s policy toward Algeria.
In particular, Driencourt wrote that a Bardella-led government would abrogate the 1968 Franco-Algerian migration agreement, suspend the return of objects belonging to Emir Abdelkader, refrain from compensating victims of French nuclear tests in the Algerian desert, and not commemorate the anniversary of the October 17, 1961 massacre of Algerians in Paris.
Uncertainty looms as France heads to the polls
As France prepares for the decisive second round of elections, the future of its relations with its former North African colonies remains uncertain. Morocco appears to be more adaptable to potential political shifts in France, driven by its interests in Western Sahara and its strained relationship with Algeria.
On the other hand, Algeria remains apprehensive about the rise of the far-right, given the complex historical legacy and the National Rally’s stance on immigration and colonial issues.
So far, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, has made no official comments regarding future relations with the Maghreb countries if her party comes to power.
Will it take the path of dialogue and reconciliation to preserve common interests, or will it follow a policy that fuels positions and differences? The question remains open as the French head to the polls this Sunday in a decisive second round.
Read also: Redefining French Identity: How National Rally’s Policies Could Ruin France
