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Marrakech – The nearly five-decade-long dispute over Western Sahara may be approaching a resolution as Morocco recently secured a major diplomatic victory with France’s recognition of its sovereignty over its southern provinces.
This development, alongside growing international support and Morocco’s military advantage, could leave the Sahrawi separatist movement, led by the Polisario Front, with little choice but to eventually settle for autonomy within Morocco, according to a recent analysis by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
The USIP, an independent institution established by the US Congress in 1984 to prevent and mitigate deadly conflicts abroad, released a report titled “Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.”
The report states that France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty is a “decisive step toward ending the Western Sahara conflict” and that “international acceptance is growing for Moroccan control of the territory.”
The report highlights that 37 nations have followed the US’ lead in recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara since former President Trump’s proclamation in 2020.
France’s decision to end its neutrality on the issue is seen as particularly influential, given its status as the Maghreb’s most recent colonial power and its strong economic ties to Morocco.
The report notes that “European opposition to Morocco’s sovereignty claims has waned in recent years, partly because of increasing trade between Morocco and Europe, but also because of the U.S. precedent.”
According to the USIP analysis, “The de facto control that Morocco now enjoys will become the permanent status unless the Polisario moves quickly to negotiate more concessions than Morocco offered in its 2007 autonomy plan.”
The report suggests that the Polisario Front and their backer, Algeria, should “seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco before the status quo becomes permanent.”
The report also raises questions about what concessions Algeria might seek from Morocco, such as re-establishing gas delivery through the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline under more favorable terms or a formal declaration denouncing cross-border support for groups that seek to undermine the other’s regime.
The USIP report notes that “the Polisario leadership faces pressure from a new generation of Sahrawis who ‘agitate for a more violent approach’” and that “Algeria may seek concessions from Morocco in exchange for accepting its sovereignty over Western Sahara.”
It also states that “for Polisario leaders to formally give up on independence, and prevent a putsch, they must be able to claim a victory otherwise defined.”
Despite these challenges, the USIP report concludes that “international momentum is entirely on Morocco’s side” and that “the conflict over the Western Sahara territory will be effectively finished” in the near future.
The US organization emphasizes that given Morocco’s military advantage, “the [Polisario] have no option other than a negotiated settlement” and that “continuing to deny this reality only ensures a less-favorable final settlement.”
The USIP analysis serves as a clear indication that the Western Sahara conflict could be nearing its end, with Morocco’s position gaining decisive support from the international community.
As the report points out, “Coming to terms with this reality is a bitter pill to swallow for the [Polisario] and their international backers but continuing to deny this reality only ensures a less-favorable final settlement.”
The path forward lies in negotiating the terms of a settlement that acknowledges Moroccan sovereignty while addressing the concerns of the Polisario and regional actors like Algeria.
Read also: Experts Spell Out Why France’s Sahara Stance Is Nightmare for Polisario, Algeria
