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1- Impact of the constitutional reform on the Sahara issue
The question that comes to the mind of any observer concerned with the latest developments in Morocco is what impact the political reform will have on the Sahara issue. Can Morocco leverage its political standing versus that of Algeria and the Polisario and make a decisive stride toward putting an end to this conflict?
A careful reading of the latest development that took place recently in the Maghreb demonstrates that Morocco’s position on the Sahara issue is stronger than ever before. This is due to both strategic mistakes made by the Polisario and the course of events in North Africa as a result of the political uprisings taking place in that region. Whereas the Polisario Front has been invoking human rights issues as its central argument in its attempts to weaken the bargaining power of Morocco, the arrest of Mustapha Salma Oueld Sidi Mouloud in August 2010 weakened its position on human rights. As a result of this blunder, the Polisario lost one of its best assets in the campaign aimed at discrediting Morocco internationally.
To make things even worse, the Polisario has been adamant over the last few months to stifle the voices of those in the Tindouf camps, represented by Khat Al-Chahid, who have been demanding more political freedom in the camps. Moreover, in the midst of the political turmoil that is currently taking place in the Arab world, the Polisario has quelled the demonstrations that took place in Tindouf on 5 March to denounce the corruption of its leadership and to express the population’s rejection of the continuation of the current situation. The aforementioned current developments are in favor of the Moroccan position and prove the shallowness of the democratic claims of the Polisario.
The image of the Polisario as democracy-prone and progressive movement suffered a major setback after the accusations directed against it by the former Libyan Minister of Immigration and Expatriates, Mr. Ali Errishi. The latter asserted that the Polisario dispatched its mercenaries in order to help Qaddafi to suppress and kill his opponents. Mr. Errishi went on to condemn the Polisario members for their “hypocrisy in claiming to fight for freedom and progressive ideal, while joining the mercenary army that Qaddafi has paid to attack Libyan protesters and cling to power”.
The fact that the Polisario delegation refused to address human rights issues during the sixth round of informal UN-sponsored-negotiations held in Malta from 7 to 9 March, while in the past they were unwavering in their demands to include human rights issues in the talks and in attempting to include them in relevant Security Council and General Assembly resolutions, is a sign that the Polisario is faltering, and that its position in human rights is weaker than ever before. As things stand right now, it is unlikely that the Polisario will succeed in its attempts to include human rights in the mandate of MINURSO next April, when the Security Council will hear the annual reports of the UN Secretary General on the situation in the Sahara since the renewal of the MINURSO mandate on April 30th 2010.
On the other side of the equation, Morocco has relied heavily on the governments of its Westerns allies in order to bolster its position over the Sahara, while it lacked the solidarity of the bulk of the Western public opinion due in part to its reputation as a “totalitarian” country and also due the lack of effectiveness of the Moroccan diplomacy. Now, the announcement of the comprehensive reform of the Moroccan constitution, including the deepening of the regionalization process, will most likely spark a favorable echo of the international public opinion. This reform of the Moroccan political system will testify to the seriousness and credibility of Morocco in implementing the Autonomy Plan in the Sahara, in conformity with international standards on matters of autonomy and provide a consensus-based political settlement to the Sahara conflict.
If we put Morocco and the Polisario in a balance, there is no doubt that the world’s public opinion will renew its trust in Morocco, a country led by a forward-looking and modern monarch as opposed to the leader of the Polisario, who has been leading the Polisario with an iron-fist for 36 years and silencing all the dissenting voices that call for the adoption of a new approach for the solution of the conflict. The arrest of Mustapha Oueld Sidi Mouloud and the quashing of the demonstrations of 5 March in Tindouf are telling in this regard.
