Rabat – Experts in Egypt and Lebanon are warning that both countries face imminent political upheaval if their respective economic crises continue to spiral.
The two countries have for years provided a significant part of Arab-language media and music, both are important players in the Israel-Palestine dossier, yet both countries are now facing political upheaval and dire socio-economic hardships, local experts warn.
Supply chain disruptions related to COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis are having a disastrous effect on North Africa and the Middle-East. With no tangible effort at deescalation coming from the world’s most powerful nations, the conflict in Eastern Europe is set to continue, with potentially lasting effects on the MENA region.
‘Catastrophic’ crisis in Egypt
Egyptian journalist Emad El Din Adeeb caused a stir in the region this week with an article in Lebanese media outlet Asas Media. Titled “Egypt: Who Will Pay the Painful Bill of the Russian-Ukrainian War,” the prominent commentator’s article warned that Egypt is facing an “emergency situation.”
The Egyptian economy has already been largely crippled by a hefty COVID-19 bill and cannot deal with the disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict, El Din Adeeb warns.
He highlights how 65 million Egyptians depend on state assistance for survival, while its currency continues to slip vis-a-vis the dollar. Now faced with a “severe and serious challenge that does not bear delay or joking in its immediate response,” he warns, Egypt cannot find “the resources needed to cover the huge increases in energy and food.”
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The Egyptian journalist also warns of a “nightmarish great wild displacement” of desperate migrants from Libya, Palestine and Sudan, and possible “catastrophic” effects on social cohesion in Egypt.
At this week’s G7 Summit, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States agreed to “stand with Egypt,” by providing crucial food aid through the World Food Program. Whether support from Egypt’s key allies is sufficient, only time will tell.
Lebanon’s spiraling crises
While Egypt is a key geopolitical ally for the West, and as such is likely to receive some sort of assistance, Lebanon is an altogether different story. Political and economic crises have been the norm for the country over the three decades, and few international players have been willing to step in and provide structural assistance.
The crisis facing Beirut is severe, yet reports of Lebanese hospitals running out of supply, large-scale power-cuts, water shortages or political instability have prompted no significant international response.
The UN is warning that Lebanon is “hanging on by a thread,” warning of the same potential mass displacement of people that El Din Adeeb described in his article.
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“Joblessness has become the tip of the iceberg, throwing away an entire productive and creative generation that can help build forward a better Lebanon,” UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Najat Rochdi told journalists at a June 16 press briefing.
Amid growing hunger and poverty, Lebanon’s health and education sectors are on the “verge of collapse” the UN has warned, yet little international assistance appears to be on the horizon. “Lebanon’s crisis is affecting everyone, everywhere across the country, with women bearing the brunt of the profound impact,” Rochdi highlighted.
