Study: Energy Decarbonization Could Save World $12 Trillion by 2050

Rabat – A recent Oxford study suggests that the decarbonization of energy systems by 2050 is set to save the world more than $12 trillion and achieve a profitable net zero energy system.

The study, published on September 13, found that the fast transition scenario to green energy is the most efficient and cheapest option we have today.

To understand the evolution of the cost of green energy, a team of researchers from Oxford University, Smith College, and Monash University analyzed thousands of transition costs. The team researched scenarios produced by major energy models and used data on 45 years of solar energy costs, 37 years of wind energy costs and 25 years for battery storage.

Their analysis suggests that the real cost of solar energy “dropped twice as fast as the most ambitious projections in these models, revealing that over the last 20 years previous models badly overestimated the future costs of key clean energy technologies versus reality.”

By comparing the costs of fast, slow, or no transition scenarios, the study concluded that countries can provide 55% more energy services by 2050 by ramping up solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles, and green fuels.

“There is a pervasive misconception that switching to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and mean sacrifices for us all – but that’s just wrong,’” says Doyne Farmer, lead author from Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford Martin School.

Rupert Way, postdoctoral researcher and lead author from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, also noted the sharp drop in the cost of clean energy, stressing that past cost-assessment models have made governments “nervous” about boosting energy transition plans.

“Past models predicting high costs for transitioning to zero carbon energy have deterred companies from investing, and made governments nervous about setting policies that will accelerate the energy transition and cut reliance on fossil fuels but clean energy costs have fallen sharply over the last decade, much faster than those models expected,” Way said.

Besides highlighting the cost-effectiveness of renewables, the study noted that the cost of nuclear power has increased over the past five decades, making the technology less cost-competitive.

Given the ongoing surge in energy prices driven by the impact of the war in Ukraine on global supply chains, according to Doyne Farmer the recent findings underscore the need to replace “expensive, insecure, fossil fuels” with “low cost clean energy.”

“The world is facing a simultaneous inflation crisis, national security crisis, and climate crisis, all caused by our dependence on high cost, insecure, polluting, fossil fuels with volatile prices,” he stated, noting that renewables give “us a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future.”

While renewables appear to be the obvious solution to the ongoing energy crisis with numerous countries sharing plans to accelerate their decarbonization efforts, some observers have argued that the Ukraine crisis has had a reversed effect, pushing for more purchasing of fossil fuels; coal, oil, natural gas, and LNG, as the winter approaches.

With dozens of oil companies planning to spend $130 million a day exploiting new oil and gas fields for the rest of the decade, according to reporting by the Guardian, respect for the Paris Climate Accord’s recommendations appears to be out of reach.