Election results in Thailand which went to polls earlier this month gave a clear indication to the electorates’ desire for change – a move to liberalism and democracy.
The Move Forward Party [MFP] under the young leader Pita Limjaroenrat triumphed winning more seats in the parliament – but that was not enough to form the government. The Prime Minister who hopes to head the Government must win a majority of 376 minimum votes of the legislature which is made up of a Lower House of 500 and a Senate with 250 members.
The Senate consists of members nominated by the military and monarchy. Hence it is believed that the members’ loyalty shall be tied to the current conservative and coup-born dispensation which the Thai voters have obviously voted to uproot. It will indeed be a tall order for a new PM – PIta as the obvious choice – to reach the magical number of 376 as he may not get any affirmative vote from the Senate.
MFP represents the aspirations of young voters enthused by an agenda that puts the Party at odds with some conservative business interests and institutions. Besides, the burgeoning Party has a firm resolve to amend a ‘lese-majeste’ law that punishes perceived insults of the monarchy with up to 15 years in jail. Though scoring the largest number of seats, MFP is still short of a majority even in the Lower House.
So 8 Thai parties – except the ruling military aligned ones – have done the logical next course of forming an alliance. They have a combined strength of 313 House seats. A 23 point MOU which carries points on which they all can agree has been signed.
The most divisive point of amending the law empowering the monarchy (lese-majeste) has been omitted to achieve the consensus. It’s good that the parties concerned could see the larger need for a government that reflects the public mood to take charge. Thus each one has compromised on one or the other agendas close to their heart in order to achieve the ‘pact’. At this stage, it is not yet clear if the 8 member coalition government headed by Pita can be formed as the extent of support in the Senate is unknown. But one can only hope against hope.
But MFP will have to walk the talk to make it acceptable. Well, the proposed change in the Constitution can take away the powers of the Senate. But to do so, a government has to take birth first! First and foremost for the MFP will be to totally shelve the amendments to monarchy law from its docket. There is no uniform support for it even amongst the partners of the pact. Even on a purely theoretical and principled ground, the party can implement their pet themes only when they have a majority of their own!
Thailand’s youngsters hoping for a break from the current stiffening atmosphere of governance need to be given just that. Also for the global community, a change in Bangkok may mean lesser support to the ruthless junta ruling Myanmar. It’s worth remembering that Thailand is one of the few ASEAN members recognizing the iron fisted generals of Naypyidaw.
Lesser matters like monarchy modernisation have to be kept in cold storage in order to achieve a larger good of people within Thailand and around. Hope Pita, a Harvard alumnus who had headed a transport and delivery app in the past, can deliver on the promises he made to the public, except the royal reform. Simultaneously, the loyalists populating the Senate also should be wise enough to listen to the voice of the public that is desiring for a new beginning. History is replete with lessons that show the ephemerality of rulers who block the will of the people.
