Waking up on Saturday with Hamas’ surprise large-scale offensive, seemingly a result of careful planning and big mobilization, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing government found themselves in limbo: Facing a historic political and military humiliation, with limited options on the ground.
As he races to first survive this historic humiliation and then ultimately turn it into a resounding military victory for Israel, Bibi — as the Israeli PrimeMinister is nicknamed — is naturally, strongly tempted to retaliate with fire and fury.
“We are at war and will win it,” he sternly said in a solemn video message hours into the large-scale Hamass attack on Israeli positions. Yet there is much to be lost with a deadly offensive that is sure to result in an untold number of civilian casualties while failing the dozens of Israeli soldiers who have been captured by Hamas forces.
With a fortified line of defense, advanced equipment, and well-trained soldiers, the breach of Israeli control in Gaza, was a major blow to the Israeli military but a big win for the Palestinian resistance. And this will come at a high domestic cost for Netanyahu, especially considering the death toll and humiliation of the Israeli military and capture of its forces.
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It is true that a declaration of war might unite Israel’s politicians of every political persuasion, but the same does not hold for Israel’s average citizens, many of whom, like all people around the world, just want peace and an environment where they can lead tranquil and fulfilled lives.
Seeing war next door, while knowing that this is the inevitable result of the Netanyahu government’s controversial policies towards the Palestinians, will just weaken many Israelis’ confidence in Bibi’s leadership, especially in the longer term.
On the diplomatic front, the ongoing escalation would undermine, or at least prolongedly delay, Israel’s relentless efforts to normalize relations with Arab countries.
Indeed, just as today’s deadly Hamas operation again led many Western governments to express their support for and solidarity with Israel, any disproportionate retaliation from Israeli forces is bound to draw statements of support for the Palestinian cause from the Arab world.
Most important perhaps, Arab countries that have already normalized relations with Israel will have to either distance themselves from Israel escalation or warn against escalation while urging both Hamas and Israel forces to show restraint.
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At the same time, and perhaps more importantly from Hamas’s perspective, the ongoing escalation will cause countries considering normalization to either reconsider or delay any potential diplomatic rapprochement with the Jewish state.
Further complicating Bibi’s mission is the capture of a considerable number of Israeli soldiers, including senior officers and unit commanders. If anything at all, this has given Hamas forces significant bargaining power and limited Israeli military options for a major offensive.
With Israeli lives in the hands of Hamas forces, Bibi and his military leaders will have to think twice before launching a disproportionately deadly escalation, as this could push Hamas to simply retaliate by executing some of the captured Israeli troops.
As a super military power, Israel’s traditional response to Hamas attacks has long been to retaliate with ferocity: to go hard, bomb indiscriminately, and inflict as much damage on civilians and infrastructure as possible. But with conditions being different this time, will Bibi’s response be the same?
