The first week of June shall mark the culmination of the election process in 3 prominent nations across three continents. India’s largest voting exercise by sheer numbers shall reach the long-awaited counting day on 4th June, South Africa just concluded the one-day election on 29th May, and Mexico votes on Sunday, June 2nd. The outcome in these countries, different as they are in issues and geography, shall mark the longevity of democracy as a means to ensure the people’s will shall prevail.
India is touted as the largest democracy in the world. Now that the country boasts (!) the biggest population as well, it is logical that it will hold on to that title for the foreseeable future, assuming that the system does survive! While the ruling pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] is expected to win a third term for its leader Narendra Modi, the opposition campaigned on the apprehension that if Modi wins, democracy shall see an early demise in the country.
Prime Minister Modi is the most popular politician in India and arguably in the world given the mammoth number of the Indian populace. He came to power in New Delhi in 2014 on a platform of corruption-free efficient administration. ‘Minimum government and maximum governance’ was his slogan. The country was suffocating from the scandal-ridden coalition government headed by the Indian National Congress (INC) which incidentally had ruled the country most of the time since independence in 1947. Hence Modi’s promise of a ‘clean’ regime was like a whiff of fresh air that people wholeheartedly inhaled. He had the reputation of ruling as head of one of the most prosperous states in India for more than a decade. He was not without blemishes. The communal riots that engulfed his state in 2002 killed more than a thousand, with the majority of the casualties from the minority Muslim community. The courts though had exonerated him of any complicity.
The efficient and clean governance that Modi promised was too overwhelming to ignore for a huge chunk of the electorate. He was elected with a bigger margin in the subsequent election in 2019. Looking back at the decade he has been at the helm, he is astride a mixed bag of hits and misses. His government didn’t yet face any corruption charges and India progressed to be the 5th largest economy in the world. However, critics and opposition accuse him of damaging the country’s social and religious fabric and destroying the institutions that are pillars of democracy. The separation of state and religion, an essential characteristic of a secular country, was given a systematic burial. The government piloted many long-overdue reforms and bold political moves like in Kashmir – the disputed territory with Pakistan. On the digitalization of the economy India made rapid strides and ‘ease of doing business’ got a leg up. But many changes ushered in smelled a rat of communal appeasement in favor of the Hindu majority and also allegations of nexus between the ruling party and some big business houses from Modi’s home state proliferated. Towards the middle of the second term, the anti-corruption drive took a distinct turn of chasing political opponents – misuse of government investigation machinery. The party – BJP – was seen as a ‘washing machine’ that cleanses the dirt of corruption if one chooses to join it because the government agencies were only intimidating the allegedly corrupt opposition leaders!
Come 2024, early indications were giving a cakewalk for Modi paving the way for an uninterrupted third successive term – a feat achieved so far by the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru only. His party has been aiming for a 370-plus (beyond 400 with allies) mandate in the lower house of parliament. This represented a huge increase in the 353 seats the alliance led by BJP won in 2019. Many suspected that the BJP had a hidden agenda to make some basic constitutional changes that the massive majority would have helped. There is distress in the farm sector and an overall high unemployment rate. Also, the temple for the Hindu God Ram constructed at a site where a mosque stood till 1992 and consecrated by Modi with fanfare in January also started yielding diminishing returns by the time people lined up to vote in April. BJP sadly realized what a wise man of yore said – ‘the public has a short memory’.
It was clear by the time the first couple of rounds got over that the magic number of 400 seats would elude the BJP. Observers sensed an unexpected resurgence in the fortunes of the rag-tag opposition coalition taking on the Modi juggernaut. The content of Modi’s speeches at election rallies also changed drastically. Instead of talking about his achievements of the past 10 years and promises for the future, the talk turned vitriolic, pandering to the Hindu majority to consolidate the vote base. Many interpreted this change as a sign of uncertainty in the ruling party’s mind. But the ‘Modi Guarantee’ of good governance and his unassailable popularity appeared to be intact.
The exit polls are out on 1st June evening as the last phase of polling is done (as per law, these cannot be aired before the poll process is complete). Their findings are on expected lines – Modi is assured of a third time with some of them even giving a better mandate than in 2019. Well, exit polls in India are like weather predictions. The rain is predicted, but it can happen today or after a few days! While this may still be tolerable, there have been rare instances when the prognosis was too erratic. The 2004 result is a typical example of when pollsters gave the BJP a majority and the opposition led by the INC surged ahead convincingly and formed a coalition government. Have the psephologists gotten their act together during the last two decades?
So the suspense has to continue until 4th June when the counting begins. However, giving credence to the professionals behind the exit polls, a balanced verdict is in the pipeline that will provide Modi with a third term sans wings to fly too high. The people also are ready to gift a higher number of wins to INC and allies, giving them a shot in the arm compared to the washout of 2014 and 2019.
In MEXICO, there is no such suspense. It is almost certain that the country will have its first female president – Claudia Sheinbaum – the protégé of outgoing strongman Andrés Manuel López Obrador [known by the acronym AMLO]. She has consistently led her immediate challenger – another female contender put up by the opposition alliance – by more than 20% in opinion polls. Other than the top slot, Mexico on 2nd June shall elect Mayors and more than 20,000 senators and congressional and local representatives. Unfortunately, the electioneering has been soaked in blood. Several candidates have been killed in mindless violence. Drug lords are imposing their will and bumping off candidates not of their choice. Almost 150 people have died in the run-up to these elections. While Mexico is not new to gang wars and killings, the disturbing new development is the spraying of entire election meetings – not just candidates – with bullets. The country is home to machismo culture and is known for gender-based violence against women. The ascendance of a lady to the highest office is significant in these circumstances.
Sheinbaum’s likely elevation shall turn the adage “Behind every successful man, there is a strong woman” on its head as she owes her rise to the strongman AMLO behind her. He can’t contest again for a 6-year term as per the constitution. So the trusted colleague is getting catapulted to the helm. But that should not take anything away from the credentials of the 61-year-old former Mayor of Mexico City. Disciplined and driven, Sheinbaum followed her biologist mother into science. She earned a PhD in electrical engineering at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and conducted doctoral research at the University of California at Berkeley for several years in the 1990s. She has published dozens of academic articles on energy, the environment, and sustainable development, and contributed to reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Sheinbaum shall be the first Jewish head of state in a predominantly catholic Mexico – her grandparents fled Nazi persecution and discrimination in their native Bulgaria and Lithuania. But she is not religious personally.
There is an apprehension that AMLO may continue the backseat driving with supplicant Sheinbaum just holding the wheels of the presidency. While this is logically plausible, people who had worked with her during her stint as Mexico City Mayor do not subscribe to that view. To reach the National Palace (Palacio Nacional in Spanish is the seat of the federal executive in Mexico), she will need the support of the immensely popular AMLO, but she is expected to move away from his shadow and pursue more forward-looking and environment-friendly policies thenceforth. Sheinbaum has promised to follow AMLO policies of increasing aid to poorer Mexicans and consolidating the government’s role in the energy sector. But she wants to reorient the country toward renewable energy (AMLO is a fossil fuel aficionado) and rely more on the police and national guard — rather than the army — to reduce violence and crime. AMLO’s ‘hugs, not bullets’ have unleashed a reign of terror with trigger-happy drug lords roaming the country with impunity. Common Mexicans shall be looking up to her to save them from the ‘bullets before ballot’ situation.
AMLO presents similarities to India’s Modi, but unlike the Indian leader and thanks to constitutional constraints, should hand over power to the chosen successor.
That brings us to the election in South Africa where the result is out, but no government in sight. But this poll is the most momentous in the post-apartheid history of this largest economy in Africa. African National Congress (ANC) can be compared to the INC of India as both were instrumental in liberating their nations from Apartheid and independence from Britain respectively. ANC’s fall from eminence happened just after three decades of post-apartheid victory when the venerable Nelson Mandela became president of South Africa.
Despite the enormous potential, South Africa suffers from high unemployment, poverty, and rabid violence. And the ruling ANC became more and more immersed in corruption. People see and understand everything. As anticipated, voters have rejected the ANC whose vote share has gone down to 40% from 58% in the last election in 2019. South Africa essentially follows a proportional representation. Without a 50% vote share, the ANC cannot nominate 200 plus members to the National Assembly with a total strength of 400. Since the President is elected by a majority of members in the National Assembly, the ANC is in no position to reelect the outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa. To cobble up a majority, the ANC will have to join hands with some other parties with whom it had exchanged bitter barbs during the campaign and who will naturally demand their pound of flesh. There will be a clash of principles, and economic directions, and most probably others will seek a leadership change. It will be better for the ANC to look for a fresh leader as bringing Ramaphosa, under whose watch the plunge in popularity happened, to the top again will not be a good strategy to regain public confidence. The negotiations have to happen in the next fortnight and the hapless nation will have to wait for a functional and much-needed government in the interregnum with fond hope.
In conclusion, people have spoken in all three nations. While the nuances are different, the urge for a better life and an efficient administration is an overwhelming desire of voters across the globe. While India waits with a semi-certainty of continuation, Mexicans almost know the identity of their new leader, and South Africa will have to search for a coalition that will throw one up.
Different shades of democracy in action!
