Doha – Tunisia held its presidential election on Sunday with incumbent Kais Saied heavily favored to win a second term, despite a crackdown on opposition figures that caused many to label the vote a sham.

Exit polls that aired on state TV showed Saied winning 89.2% of the vote, with his nearest challenger, imprisoned businessman Ayachi Zammel, garnering just 6.9% according to polling firm Sigma Conseil. Zouhair Maghzaoui, a former Saied ally turned critic, received 3.9% of the vote based on the poll.

Voter turnout stood at only 27.7% according to Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), about half the participation rate of the 2019 presidential runoff. Official results are expected to be announced on Monday evening.

Opposition sidelined, leading critics jailed

In the run-up to the election, Saied faced accusations of unfairly sidelining opponents and stifling dissent. Many prominent opposition figures, including the head of the Ennahda party Rached Ghannouchi, have been imprisoned on various charges. Human Rights Watch says over 170 people are detained in Tunisia on political grounds.

Other potential challengers were barred from running by the electoral commission Saied appointed. When courts ordered some excluded candidates to be reinstated, the commission refused to comply. The president’s supporters in parliament also rushed through a law preventing the results from being contested in the administrative court.

Saied defends actions, cites fighting corruption

Saied, a 66-year-old former law professor, has rejected criticism of his actions, arguing he is battling corruption and “traitors” to Tunisia. He came to power in 2019 vowing to carry out the aims of Tunisia’s 2011 revolution that ousted longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and ushered in democracy.

However, in July 2021, Saied suspended parliament and later rewrote the constitution, granting himself expansive powers in a move opponents branded a coup. A referendum on the new constitution passed but with only 30% turnout. Parliamentary elections in January saw participation plunge to 11%.

Economic woes, migration deals

Tunisia’s economy has continued to struggle, with unemployment climbing to 16% – one of the highest rates in the region. The government owes billions to international lenders. An increasing number of Tunisians have attempted to migrate to Europe in recent years.

Despite democratic backsliding, the EU has continued to support Saied, with observers saying Europe will tolerate rights violations as long as he upholds promises to reduce migration. But within Tunisia, anger is mounting against repressive measures. Protests erupted in the capital Tunis in the days before the vote.

Weakened legitimacy despite likely win

While Saied looks set to secure five more years in power, analysts say questions over the fairness of the election may undermine his legitimacy. The lack of independent observers, restrictions on civil society monitors, and heavy-handed treatment of opponents have deprived Saied of the resounding mandate he sought.

“Far from being free and fair, the election has served to further expose Saied’s nervousness, lack of confidence in his own popularity, intolerance of any criticism and complete disregard for the rule of law,” wrote Yusra Ghannouchi, daughter of the jailed Ennahda leader, in an exclusive for Middle East Eye.

Still, the president’s supporters celebrated in downtown Tunis on Sunday night, honking car horns and waving Tunisian flags. Saied has pledged to continue pursuing “traitors and schemers” saying “We’re going to cleanse the country of all the corrupt.”

But with an economy in crisis and popular anger rising, even a stolen victory may not guarantee Saied the unquestioned authority he craves. As one protester told the Associated Press: “We, as young people, are more attached to what the revolution brought to us. We were raised after the revolution to speak our minds.”