Morocco’s economy is expected to expand by 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, according to new estimates from the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
The projection reflects steady momentum carried over from early in the year, although growth may ease slightly compared to previous months.
The HCP noted that domestic demand continues to play a central role. It is projected to contribute 6.6 percentage points to overall growth, offsetting weaker external demand caused by slower global economic conditions.
After a period of recovery that began at the end of 2024, both investment and household consumption remain strong, though the pace may become more moderate.
Non-agricultural activities are expected to rise by 4.2%, following a 4.4% increase in the second quarter.
Inflation pressures are likely to remain contained. If global oil prices keep declining, inflation could settle at 1.1% in the third quarter, with core inflation reaching around 0.8%.
These projections rest on the assumption that food supply chains remain stable and oil markets do not face new shocks.
The HCP also cited a list of uncertainties that could affect the outlook.
Among the top concerns is the impact of new US tariffs on European items. This could weaken foreign demand for Moroccan products, particularly those with strong ties to Europe such as automobiles, chemicals, textiles and metallurgy.
The agricultural sector might also be under threat if the hot summers cut animal production. Other sectors might, though, cushion the dangers.
The agri-food sector, which includes cereal processing and fish canning, might increase the growth. The chemical sector to remain robust, might also support industrial output.
Yet another fall in global oil prices will be able to keep inflation in check and support growth, provided there are no huge geopolitical surprises.
