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Rabat – Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its latest economic outlook note.
The agency attributed the projection to a strong base effect linked to last year’s activity, as well as continued recovery in the agricultural sector and steady domestic demand.
Household consumption is expected to rise by 4.2%, while investment spending is projected to remain moderate, increasing by about 3.8% in fixed capital formation.
However, the outlook comes with significant uncertainty due to rising geopolitical tensions and their impact on global commodity markets. The commission noted that energy prices, which had eased since 2023 due to weaker global demand, have started to rise again following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war.
Under an assumption of restored stability and secured shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, along with faster repair of damaged energy infrastructure, Brent crude oil is expected to trade between $85 and $100 per barrel during the second quarter of 2026. Prices are then expected to gradually decline in the third quarter.
Still, the report said that this scenario remains uncertain. A further rise in oil prices could increase inflation in the short term. The pass-through to other goods prices is currently limited, partly due to rainfall effects and government measures to control transport costs.
Still, stronger tensions in energy markets could increase inflationary pressure, affecting domestic demand and raising production costs. Key sectors likely to be impacted include fisheries, chemicals, steel, and construction materials.
MWN with MAP
