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Casablanca — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called on governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors to prepare for the likely arrival of an El Niño in 2026, a natural phenomenon that could influence global temperatures and precipitation.
According to WMO’s latest Info-Niño/Niña bulletin released today, the probability of this phenomenon’s appearance between June and August stands at 80%, while the chances of it persisting at least until November are close to or exceed 90%.
Observations collected by WMO show that sea surface temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific is already approaching El Niño thresholds. Below the surface, abnormally warm waters, more than 6°C above average in some areas of the tropical Pacific, are fuelling this trend. Even if uncertainties remain regarding its maximum intensity, most climate models predict an at least moderate episode, with the possibility of a strong phenomenon.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could exacerbate droughts, heavy rains, and heat waves on land and in the oceans. The 2023-2024 episode is already among the five most intense ever observed and contributed to the world temperature records recorded in 2024.
Read also: El Niño Could Return in 2026 and Renew Drought Risks for Morocco
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said that conditions associated with El Niño are likely to worsen the effects of global warming already seen around the world.
For the June-July-August period, WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures in almost all regions of the world. Some areas may experience more rainfall and flooding, while others will face drier conditions and an increased risk of drought.
In Morocco, international climate forecasting organizations are also monitoring the situation closely. Several analyses published in the spring of 2026 have highlighted that a return of El Niño could revive concerns about water resources after several years of drought, although the exact impacts on the country remain difficult to determine several months in advance.
In the face of these risks, WMO stresses the importance of early warning systems, preventive water resources management and the use of seasonal forecasts to help authorities, farmers and operators in the energy and water sectors anticipate possible disruptions.
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