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Rabat – As the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues to attract fans around the globe, an unlikely figure has once again entered the football conversation: German economist Joachim Klement.
Klement is not a coach, football analyst, scout, or former player. Yet his World Cup predictions have earned extensive attention after correctly forecasting the winners of the last three tournaments: Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022.
His success has led many fans to closely follow his forecast for the 2026 edition, hoping to see whether his remarkable streak can continue, and whether their countries are involved.
Unlike traditional football predictions, Klement’s model relies on a mix of economic and demographic factors. Wealth, sports infrastructure, the status of football in society, footballing history, and FIFA rankings all play a role in determining a country’s chances of lifting the trophy.
While football supporters often rely on form, star players, and titles, Klement’s approach treats the World Cup as a mathematical exercise.
For this year’s tournament, the economist predicts the Netherlands will win their first-ever World Cup title after defeating Portugal in the final, a scenario that differs from many popular predictions favoring nations such as Spain, Morocco, France, Brazil and Argentina.
The forecast has generated considerable discussion online, especially given Klement’s track record.
Yet Klement himself has warned against taking his predictions seriously. He has repeatedly indicated that football remains highly unpredictable and that no statistical model can estimate refereeing decisions, injuries, or moments of individual brilliance.
“It’s like tossing a coin. You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn’t guarantee it will happen again next time,” Klement says.
His caution reflects one of football’s enduring truths: numbers can explain a lot, but they cannot explain everything.
As the tournament progresses, fans will continue to watch the action unfold on the pitch. At the same time, many will keep an eye on Klement’s prediction to see whether the economist can achieve what seems almost impossible, correctly forecasting four consecutive World Cup champions.
Whether he is proven right or wrong, Klement has already become one of the most intriguing off-field stories of the 2026 World Cup.
