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Rabat – Inflation in Morocco is expected to remain relatively contained over the next two years, according to new projections from Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), the country’s central bank.
BAM forecasts that inflation will average 1.5% in 2026 before rising to 2.1% in 2027. The central bank said that higher energy costs, rising fuel prices, and imported inflation are likely to push domestic prices upward, though increases are expected to remain moderate overall.
The bank also noted that underlying inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to remain very low at 0.2% in 2026. This reflects a decline in food prices. However, it is projected to rise to 2.9% in 2027 as food-related deflation fades and imported inflation pressures increase.
According to BAM’s quarterly survey of financial sector experts, inflation expectations have edged up slightly. Experts surveyed in the second quarter of 2026 expect inflation to average 2.2% over both the 8-quarter and 12-quarter horizons.
Morocco’s inflation has eased compared to recent global peaks driven by post-pandemic disruptions and the surge in global energy prices due to the US-Iran war. Like many import-dependent economies, Morocco remains sensitive to changes in international oil and commodity markets, which directly affect transportation and production costs.
The projections suggest that while inflationary pressures are not expected to disappear, they are likely to remain under control in the medium term. This aligns with BAM’s broader monetary policy approach, which has focused on stabilizing prices while supporting economic recovery.
The expected rise in inflation in 2027 indicates the role of imported inflation and energy costs as key risk factors. Economists often point out that Morocco’s inflation trajectory is closely tied to global market conditions, particularly given the country’s reliance on energy imports.
