Casablanca – International energy markets have been rattled by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and renewed conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on refining infrastructure.
While crude oil prices have risen, analysts note that refined fuels such as diesel have seen even sharper increases as refinery capacity and fuel exports remain constrained. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said refining margins and diesel “cracks” surged to four-year highs in July as product markets tightened despite relatively stable crude supplies.
Reuters also reported that diesel refining margins in Europe climbed to record levels in July, with refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia tightening global fuel supplies and pushing up retail fuel prices across several markets.
Recent biweekly price adjustments in Morocco have already reflected these global pressures. Diesel prices rose by around MAD 0.69 per liter in mid-July, bringing the national average to roughly MAD 13.30 per liter, according to local industry data reported by Moroccan media.
According to converging reports, Houcine El Yamani, secretary-general of the National Petroleum and Gas Union and president of the National Front to Save SAMIR, estimates that diesel prices on the international market increased from about MAD 7.5 to MAD 9.4 per liter between the first and second halves of July—an increase of more than 25%.
Based on Morocco’s pre-liberalization pricing formula, he projects diesel could reach MAD 14.20 per liter during the first half of August, while renewing calls to end fuel price liberalization, revive the Mohammedia refinery, lower fuel taxes, and strengthen the country’s strategic fuel reserves.
