Casablanca – The OECD raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from its June outlook, while it expects growth to reach 3.0% in 2027, down 0.1 percentage point from its previous projection. The figures appear in the OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report released in September 2026.
The OECD said global growth slowed during the first half of the year, reaching an annualized rate of 2.6%, compared with 3.6% in the second half of 2025. The war in the Middle East sharply affected countries such as Saudi Arabia, while energy-importing and energy-exporting economies showed greater resilience than the OECD had initially expected.
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The report said oil and gas supply disruptions pushed energy prices higher and reduced demand for affected commodities. Government support measures, alternative energy supplies and withdrawals from oil reserves helped cushion the impact.
Strong AI-related investment and production also supported growth, particularly through data center investment and technology exports from major semiconductor producers including Japan and South Korea.
Global merchandise trade also recovered gradually after the initial impact of the war. AI-related goods continued to support trade growth, particularly in Asian economies, while shipping activity improved and supply chain pressures eased after an initial spike. However, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at very low levels.
Inflation, energy prices remain key concerns
The OECD expects stronger commodity prices to push inflation higher in the near term. It projects G20 headline inflation at 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, before easing to 3.6% in 2027. In advanced G20 economies, inflation should rise to 3.2% this year before falling to 2.6% next year.
Energy markets remain central to the outlook. The OECD expects Brent crude prices to peak at an average of $105 per barrel in the final quarter of 2026, while European TTF gas prices could reach €82 per megawatt-hour. It expects both prices to decline through 2027.
The OECD projects US growth at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. It expects euro area growth to remain at 1.0% in both years, while China’s growth should slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
The organization also warned about risks from prolonged energy disruptions, extreme weather, higher long-term borrowing costs, and weaker-than-expected returns from AI investment. A very strong El Niño could also disrupt agricultural production and increase food prices in several regions.
