Rabat – Morocco’s economy is on course to expand by 4.4% in 2026 despite a sharp downturn across much of the Middle East and North Africa, with the World Bank pointing to agriculture, tourism, public investment, and exports as key sources of resilience.
As part of the World Bank’s latest economic update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region, the forecast places Morocco well ahead of the broader regional outlook.
The MENAAP economy is expected to contract by 2.1% this year after 3.3% growth in 2025. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies face an even steeper decline of 4.3%, amid disruptions to trade and energy flows linked to the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Morocco’s growth, meanwhile, is expected to ease from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 before settling at 4% in 2027.
The World Bank raised its 2026 forecast for Morocco by 0.2 percentage points from its April projection. It kept its 2027 forecast unchanged.
The North African country entered 2026 with several favorable factors behind it. Better rainfall has supported agriculture, while public investment, tourism, and exports have continued to provide momentum.
The pace of growth should nevertheless slow from last year as the boost from stronger agricultural output fades and higher energy costs put additional pressure on the economy.
Inflation should remain relatively low at 1.2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, compared with 0.8% last year.
Morocco’s fiscal deficit is expected to remain at 3.5% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing slightly to 3.3% in 2027. The current account deficit, however, is forecast to widen to 3.6% of GDP this year from 2.1% in 2025 before improving to 2.4% next year.
Morocco outpaces regional peers
Morocco also stands out among developing oil-importing economies.
The World Bank expects growth across that group to rise from 3.9% in 2025 to 4.3% this year and 4% in 2027. Morocco’s 4.4% forecast puts it ahead of the group average and well above Tunisia and Jordan, whose economies are expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
The North African country also has the lowest projected inflation rate among the group. Tunisia faces an estimated 5.5%, while Jordan and Egypt are expected to record 2.5% and 13.3%, respectively.
Morocco’s fiscal position also compares favorably with its peers. Its projected 3.5% deficit is narrower than the expected deficits in Jordan at 4.6%, Tunisia at 6%, and Egypt at 6.8%.
Still, the World Bank has flagged debt and financing pressures as significant risks for Morocco. The possibility of a stronger-than-usual El Niño event toward the end of 2026 could also create additional pressure, particularly through its impact on agriculture.
From crisis management to the AI economy
The World Bank’s assessment goes beyond Morocco’s near-term economic performance. It argues that governments across the region must prepare for a deeper transformation as artificial intelligence reshapes productivity and business.
A potential easing of the regional conflict could produce a dramatic rebound in 2027. Excluding Iran, the region’s growth could reach 7.8%, driven largely by the recovery of oil and gas production, the restoration of trade routes, and the low base from the previous year.
But the World Bank cautioned that such a rebound would not necessarily translate into stronger long-term growth.
Much of the increase would simply come from the return of production lost during the crisis. The bigger challenge, according to the institution, is to raise productivity and build economies that can withstand future shocks.
That is where AI enters the picture.
The World Bank expects AI to boost productivity across MENAAP economies more than it will eliminate jobs through automation. Fewer than 10% of jobs in the region face a high risk of near-term automation, while 13% to 20% could benefit significantly from AI tools that help workers perform their jobs more effectively.
Morocco has several advantages as it enters this transition.
The World Bank highlighted Morocco and Tunisia as two developing oil-importing economies that have expanded their exports of high-tech products. The trend points to a gradual shift toward more knowledge-intensive industries and deeper participation in global technology supply chains.
High-tech products accounted for about 5% of Morocco’s manufactured exports in 2024. Tunisia’s share exceeded 7%. Together, the two countries have become the region’s leading exporters of AI-related products.
Morocco is also seeking a larger role in the region’s AI infrastructure. The World Bank cited the Nexus AI Factory, a $1.2 billion computing infrastructure project powered entirely by renewable energy, as part of efforts by Morocco and Egypt to establish regional AI hubs.
Businesses still lag on AI adoption
Yet Morocco’s ambitions face a significant gap between its technological potential and the reality inside many businesses.
Most Moroccan companies now have access to basic digital tools, while about one-third have adopted more advanced software. Fewer than half, however, use these technologies intensively.
AI adoption remains particularly limited. Only 4.3% of establishments had adopted big-data analytics or AI in 2024, compared with 40% that used cloud computing, according to data cited by the World Bank.
However, cost and regulation remain the main barriers.
The lack of a dedicated AI regulatory framework could discourage companies from adopting the technology at scale, the World Bank warned.
This challenge is not unique to Morocco. Across MENAAP, countries face gaps in computing infrastructure, human capital, data, and digital systems. Regional languages and datasets also remain underrepresented in global AI systems.
The World Bank sees cooperation across the region as one way to close those gaps.
The Gulf brings substantial computing capacity, while middle-income economies offer talent and growing technology sectors. The region’s linguistic diversity could also become an asset rather than a constraint if countries develop AI systems that reflect local languages, markets, and data.
For Morocco, the next economic challenge may therefore extend beyond surviving regional shocks. Its ability to turn technological potential into widespread business adoption could determine whether its current resilience develops into stronger long-term growth.
