Join on WhatsApp
Join on Telegram
Doha – In a recent expert commentary published by Chatham House on December 6, Associate Fellow Ahmed Aboudouh analyzes how Morocco could emerge as a battleground in a forthcoming global trade war.
The article highlights the significance of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Morocco on his return from the G20 summit in Brazil in November, signaling China’s efforts to safeguard its domination of the electric vehicle (EV) industry amidst increasing protectionist policies in Europe and the United States.
According to the South China Morning Post, China is ramping up investments in Morocco’s EV battery and manufacturing industries. Gotion High-Tech has committed $1.3 billion to build Africa’s first EV battery “gigafactory” near Rabat, while battery component makers BTR New Material Group and Shinzoom have invested $300 million and $690 million, respectively.
These investments are part of China’s strategy to leverage Morocco’s strategic advantages, including its proximity to European markets, reserves of key battery materials, and the potential to access the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Read also: Russia Turns to Morocco as New Hub for Oil Transfers, Tech Imports Amid Sanctions
Aboudouh points out that China exported 1.2 million EVs in 2023, with 47% going to the European Union. However, the EU has approved new tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese EV imports, while the US has hiked tariffs from 25% to 100%. These measures aim to protect industrial supply chains, reduce reliance on China, and encourage “friendshoring.”
“US and EU tariffs will also speed up Chinese offshoring. That will entail Chinese manufacturers moving manufacturing operations abroad so that they can avoid new export restrictions and continue to send their products to Western markets,” Aboudouh writes.
Morocco’s role as a workaround for Chinese EV companies is evident in the numerous deals signed between businesses from Western and Western-friendly countries with Chinese companies in Morocco. These partnerships involve EV battery plants, car assembly, and component manufacturing.
However, Aboudouh warns that “Morocco’s role as a workaround for Chinese EV companies may put it at the heart of great-power competition, regardless of any mitigating measures the government may adopt.”
He suggests that under a potential second term of the Trump administration, the US and the European Commission may roll out new measures targeting Chinese EV investments and joint ventures in third-party countries, including Morocco.
Despite Morocco’s efforts to hedge its bets by pursuing a bilateral, transactional approach and hesitating to join China-led multilateral arrangements like BRICS, the country may face considerable challenges as a focus in the forthcoming trade war.
Nonetheless, Aboudouh concludes that if Morocco manages to protect its interests and come out unscathed, it may provide a playbook for other countries in the Global South to follow.
