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Rabat – A recent report from the Dutch Clingendael Institute estimated that 2.5 million people could die in Sudan from hunger and related causes by September 2024 if the ongoing conflict continues.
The devastating internal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which erupted in April 2023, has severely disrupted the country and caused severe food insecurity.
Published on May 24, the report attributed the alarming forecast to several factors, including depleted harvests, declining food imports, soaring prices, and restricted humanitarian aid access.
“A tipping point at which large-scale hunger transitions into large-scale death has likely already been reached in parts of the country in May,” the report said.
It estimated that 90% of the deaths would likely occur in just 10% of Sudan’s population, with Darfur and Kordofan regions particularly hard hit, potentially losing 15% of their populations to starvation and disease.
Since the conflict began, grassroots food-sharing initiatives have emerged as temporary relief measures. However, the report warned that these efforts alone are insufficient.
Increased agricultural production and significant international food aid are crucial to preventing mass starvation, according to the institute.
The report noted that mortality is strongly linked not only to the severity of hunger, but also to its duration. “One cannot survive at emergency levels of food consumption for a long time. This is cause for serious concern for the 2025 lean season.”
The ongoing war has resulted in significant casualties and widespread displacement, making Sudan the largest internal displacement crisis globally with over 6.4 million people internally displaced and 1.8 million fleeing to neighboring countries.
Before the conflict, Sudan was already grappling with political instability, economic challenges, and severe food insecurity, affecting millions.
The war has further worsened these conditions, with nearly 25 million people now in need of humanitarian aid, according to NGO the International Rescue Committee (IRC)
In addition, the country’s healthcare system is nearing collapse, as more than 70% of health facilities in conflict-affected areas are inoperable or closed. Disease outbreaks like cholera and measles are causing significant fatalities, particularly among children.
UNICEF recently revealed that nearly 14 million children in Sudan are in need of humanitarian assistance. The UN agency added that more than 19 million children of school-going age have not attended school for months.
