Ukraine Riddle: How NATO Can Solve it

As the NATO summit is to commence at Vilnius on 11th July, President Zelesnky has been visiting many member states in an effort to drum up support for Ukraine’s entry to the Alliance. Noncommittal responses must have left him with the plight of the French parable ‘plucking the daisy’ – ‘they will let me in ; they will not’ with Ukraine’s national flower – Sunflower – replacing the daisy. In reality of course, he has been waging a ‘war’ on the diplomatic and social fronts to present Ukraine’s valid case to all those who care – an effort no less than the valor of his troops in keeping a more resourceful enemy mostly at bay.

Well, there is some certainty now with the US President making it clear that Ukraine ‘is not ready’ for NATO membership. Per se, this is a truism, but needs a nuanced interpretation. Even Zelensky is not expecting an imminent admission which would have led to NATO planes bombing Russia and then the all too well known odium of Third World War, Nuclear Armageddon etc. No NATO member, except perhaps the Baltic trio and Poland is for this ground breaking (literally!) approach. Even Ukraine is acutely aware of the fact that no ticket to NATO will be issued till the war is over. One may however think that Ukraine is currently akin to a free observer who nevertheless gets to watch the show, though from a faraway seat! So, more than the aspirant’s readiness, NATO’s own rightful apprehension will block Ukraine’s admittance till the ‘special military operation’ launched by Russia way back in February 2022 continues clobbering the hapless nation.

The US and Germany have been the doubting Thomases. Other than the end of the armed conflict, the US is also expecting ‘democratization’, end of corruption and military under civilian authority among the slew of recipes to be hustled up by Ukraine before a seat at the table. In the meantime, Turkey, who agreed to Sweden’s entry only at the late eve of the Summit, has thrown in a pleasant surprise with President Erdogan declaring “Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO” with Zelenskyy by his side. . With no other clear voices supporting Ukraine’s immediate admission, the Vinilus conclave will pass without Ukraine becoming a NATO member. In effect thus, the summit will be looked upon to see what sort of a clear road map it lays for Ukraine to gain access to the coveted Organization.

Yes, the road map. What shall be the signboards, balustrades and the speed breakers that should ensure a safe and speedy entry for Ukraine to NATO?

To begin with, one should agree that seeds of Russian aggression to Ukraine and Georgia before were sowed in the 2008 NATO summit. These 2 countries were mentioned as possible candidates for the membership, but no objective steps were taken. President Putin was present and apparently told President Bush then and there that “Ukraine is not a country”. As the current Ukrainian Defence Minister apparently said, “‘The doors are open,’ they told us, but they didn’t show us where to find these doors, or how to get in,”. Both countries were attacked by Russia within the next 6 years and a major chunk of territory was forcibly taken. In contrast, no aggression happened in Europe against a NATO country. Almost the entire Eastern Europe and Baltic states were once Russian territory as Ukraine or Georgia were! Obviously the Organisation membership is a deterrent! So bring it on.

But it can happen only when the war stops. Zelensky’s goal of driving Russians entirely from all occupied areas (including Crimea) seems to be a chimera. The price to pay in terms of destruction and human suffering may pose questions on the very existence of Ukraine. Western support is currently allowing Ukraine to chase this dream. It is to be noted that NATO members, especially America, have traveled the extra mile each time when Ukraine needed the critical equipment. President Biden’s each ‘nay’ ultimately became ‘yeah’ for tanks, cruise missiles, Patriots, training on fighter jets and now, albeit intense opposition even from allies, even cluster bombs! Still, the liberation of the currently occupied eastern front and Crimea may be an unattainable goal for Ukraine just on the battle front.

When the impasse is clear to Ukraine, they will have to make a choice. One scenario sighted by some observers is that of West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer in 1955. He secured the part of Germany he controlled by docking it to NATO at the cost of a full reunification. However, 34 years later the Berlin Wall collapsed and a unification of Germany happened. For Zelensky, an immediate entry to NATO shall be the trigger to call for a ceasefire leaving the (remaining) Russian occupied areas in the latter’s control. Indeed, one unknown factor here is if another Gorbachev will happen in Russia to facilitate a Germany type merger! But the certain fact is that the Ukraine minus occupied territories shall not face further aggression as they shall be NATO land with protection of Article 5. It is assumed that as on date the majority of Ukrainians favor continuing fighting till all areas including Crimea are liberated. For Zelenski to sell the idea of a ceasefire against such a bullish mood, the certainty of NATO protection may be of help.

For NATO too it’s an ominous question as to how long they can sustain supporting Ukraine without a domestic backlash. There can be regime change in these democratic countries and with that perhaps a change in policy too. The possibility of a Republican President in the US after the 2024 election turning cold towards Ukraine’s needs cannot be ruled out. Taking a holistic view, an end to fighting shall mean stopping the steady flow of taxpayers money from these countries to Ukraine and the focus then can be on rebuilding, probably using the frozen Russian funds in the West.

NATO also shall benefit by the now battle hardened force of Ukraine getting integrated. At least the experience of men and machines in the battlefront shall be a valuable addition to the war chest of NATO. The war that had ended by then, afterall, would have been the biggest in Europe after the second world war!

So, the roadmap that NATO can offer Ukraine shall be to support them with arms and ammunition till the latter feels like fighting. Since the time limit cannot be open ended, a deadline has to be advised confidentially – end of 2023 perhaps? Once Ukraine is able to see the reality – earlier the better – they should call for peace talks/ceasefire on ‘Where is-As is’ basis bagging concessions, if any, that are coming along. On cessation of armed action, the rest of Ukraine becomes NATO member.

Agreed, the Vilnius Summit cannot offer a red carpet to Ukraine. But it can lay a visible path, even if rugged. It’s better and safer than an invite to a doorless mansion, left out in the open and becoming a sitting duck for a ruthless neighbor!