Rabat – The HCP expects continual improvement in the business climate in both emerging and advanced economies in the second quarter of 2017, despite the ongoing political uncertainties in Europe and the slight upturn in inflation.
“National economic growth is expected to continue increasing at a more sustained pace in the second quarter of 2017, driven by a 14.8% increase in agricultural added value, which would have increased its contribution to overall economic growth to 1.7 points, instead of 1.5 points a quarter earlier,” stated the High Commission for planning in its later conjecture note on economic growth.
The increase of imports from advanced economies, particularly from the US and Europe, and from emerging countries like China would enable world trade to grow at a faster pace than in the previous year. In this context, global demand for Moroccan business is expected to improve by 4.7% year on year.
However, the current depreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar on foreign exchange markets could detract from the price competitiveness of Moroccan exports to Europe on the one hand and increase Moroccan imports of raw products on the other hand, especially if global industrial raw materials prices continue to rise.
The HCP added that in this context, industrial added value would increase by 3.6% in the second quarter of 2017 and annual growth would increase by 8.1%, thanks in particular to the growth of the production dynamics of non-metallic minerals.
As for crude phosphate exports, the HCP forecasts a moderate increase but expects a strengthening in sales to local processing industries, as international prices for agricultural products rise. As for services, their added value would increase by 2.8%, contributing with 1.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
Overall, non-agricultural added value is expected to improve by 3.2% in the second quarter of 2017, on an annual basis, thereby increasing overall GDP by 4.6% over the same period, instead of + 0.5% a year earlier.
On the other hand, the HCP notes a slight slowdown in investment compared to the previous quarter, rising only by 3% year on year, instead of + 3.3% a quarter earlier, thus contributing only 0.9 point to GDP growth, instead of one point a quarter ago.
The HCP attributed this slowdown to the decrease of public investment due to the delay in the treasury’s execution of the budget and to the poor performances that have characterized the construction sector, among other things. Treasury investment spending also declined by 10.7% at the end of February 2017, while investment in industrial products continued to grow, following a 13.9% increase in imports of capital goods and a 6.6% improvement in the flow of credits granted to equipment.
