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Rabat – Morocco’s Gross Domestic Production (GDP) growth is set to average 1.1% in 2022 due to economic disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war.
The number is way below the country’s 2021 GDP growth which reached 7.2%, the IMF, said in a quarterly report that came out this week.
The news comes as the COVID-induced economic recession in Morocco continues to recede.
In its global economic outlook, the IMF explained that the ongoing war in Ukraine is slowing down the rate of post-pandemic economic recovery prompting the organization to downgrade its global growth projections by 0.8% to 3.6% in 2022.
Growth could slow down more significantly should the west broaden the range of economic sanctions targeting Russia to include energy and other imports.
The strain from such a scenario would further constrain the global supply chain, driving inflation higher worldwide, with food and energy prices increasing.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), an index tracking the average price of a basket of goods and services, is set to rise significantly in 2022, driven by rising food prices.
Adding to rising grain prices, the conflict is set to trigger a rise in the cost of farming fertilizers.
Soaring prices will especially affect emerging economies. The IMF predicts CPI to reach 12.8% in the Middle East and Central Asia in 2022, before decreasing slightly to 10.5% in 2023.
In Morocco, CPI will average a 4.4% year-on-year growth in 2022, reflecting the soaring food and energy prices, IMF data suggests.
Despite being on the rise, CPI in Morocco remains below the average within Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and Libya). CPI is set to average 6.8% in 2022, and 5.7% in 2023 for the five countries.
2023 outlook
According to the IMF Morocco’s GDP growth is set to average 4.6% in 2023.
Rising food and energy prices are also set to ease in 2023 around the world. In Morocco, CPI is set to average a year-to-year growth of 2.3% in 2023, the IMF report indicates.
Regarding unemployment projections, Morocco’s unemployment rate will continue to slightly decrease in 2023, going from 11.7% in 2022 to 11.1% the year after.
Published this month, The IMF economic prospect is worse than the report issued in January.
Over the first quarter of 2022, the global economy was well on the mend, but the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing Russian sanctions coupled with frequent lockdowns in key manufacturing hubs in China have all deteriorated the recovery prospects for the global economy, the IMF says.
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