Western Sahara: Has Moroccan Diplomacy Really Failed in Kenya?

Washington DC – Every time the Western Sahara is discussed at a regional or international level, some commentators rush to criticize Moroccan diplomacy for any potential small setbacks.

Carried away on the spur of the moment, without taking the necessary time or distance to analyze the topic in its broader political and geopolitical context, these social commentators tend to dismiss all the breakthroughs that Morocco has achieved over the past decade. Ultimately, theirs is a doomsday narrative driven by the need to show that Morocco is about to be swept away by its adversaries.

This tendency to read the latest developments of the Western Sahara dispute with a high dose of sensationalism and disregard for facts and context was made evident on Thursday last week following the Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 2654, which extended the United Nations’ peacekeeping mission to Western Sahara for one year until October 31, 2023.

A holdover from the past

With one of the episode’s key highlights being Kenya’s choice to abstain from voting and joining Russia in breaking the consensus, , some have been quick to downplay and question Kenya’s emerging, perceptibly pro-Morocco approach to the Sahara dispute.

Shortly after his inauguration as Kenya’s president-elect in September, William Ruto met with Morocco’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Bourita to confirm his long-expressed intention to sever relations between his country and the Algeria-backed, self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

Still, some saw Kenya’s abstention on October 27 as a sign that Nairobi is not truly committed to Ruto’s expressed support for Morocco.

These criticisms would have been warranted and well-founded had the Kenyan ambassador to the United Nations been appointed by the new president. Yet, many who were quick to point to the alleged failure of Morocco’s diplomacy failed to see that the current Kenyan ambassador is but a holdout of the government of former President Kenyatta, a loyal ally of Algeria.

What’s more, this same ambassador has since his appointment two years ago, coinciding with the election of his country as a member of the Security Council, spared no effort to blunt Morocco’s diplomatic momentum in the Western Sahara debate. Also overlooked by these observers is that the Kenyan diplomat is spending his last days in his post in New York for a simple but very important reason: the new government appointed by President Ruto will take over the reins of power in the country this Friday, after it was sworn in before the president on Thursday October 28.

Signs of changing tides

But what does that mean in practice? For one thing, it means that the current Kenyan ambassador to the United Nations, a member of the old guard and a close confidant of former President Kenyatta, was keen to assume the same position adopted by the outgoing government, not caring about the stance that the new government might take. Pending the inauguration of the new Ruto-appointed government, which obtained the confidence of parliament on Wednesday October 26, Kenya had been led by a caretaker government.

Among those who took part in the swearing-in ceremony last Thursday was Alfred Mutua, who took over as Minister of Foreign Affairs. Prior to assuming his new position, Mutua was among the many high-level Kenyan personalities that maintained a friendly relationship with Mokhtar Ghambo, Morocco’s former ambassador to Kenya. Like his president, when Mutua met with the Moroccan diplomat, he expressed good dispositions to strive towards a rapprochement between Rabat and Nairobi.

Algerian influences

To understand how the Kenyan ambassador’s vote is part of Algeria’s desperate attempts to give the impression that Kenya has not abandoned its traditional position that challenges Morocco’s territorial integrity, we should more carefully read the Kenyan ambassador’s text when explaining his vote on the resolution.

The text was a carbon copy of Algeria’s narrative, especially promoting its decades-old claims that Resolution 690 of 1991 is still considered as the guiding principle for the UN-led political process. In reality, however, this is outdated and is inconsistent with all the resolutions the Security Council has adopted since 2007.

In addition, the Kenyan ambassador’s text stressed the need for the African Union to play a pivotal role in the political process under the auspices of the United Nations. Further supporting the hypothesis of last-minute Algerian influences on Kenya’s current UN ambassador is that the same Kenyan UN representative had no qualms about voting yes for Resolution 2602 in October 2021 when he was president of the Security Council. The language he used when explaining his vote in favor of that resolution was significantly different from the language he used this time to explain his reasons for abstaining.

Why abstain?

At a time when Kenya is going through a political transition, and just hours away from the inauguration of its new government (whose president announced a few weeks ago his intention to get closer to Morocco), what are the reasons behind this radical shift in the Kenyan position?

The most logical reason is that Kenya’s outgoing ambassador was keen to pass on a message to the Algerian regime that a large part of the old guard in Kenya is still ready to support it and to sabotage the current government’s efforts to strengthen ties with Morocco, even after its departure from power.

This effort is not free however, because the old guard is convinced that Algeria is ready to spend some of its oil revenues to help them return to power in 2027 and guarantee them privileges that would let them live in luxurious conditions at the expenses of Algerians who struggle to procure basic commodities, including oil, flour, sugar, vegetables and fruits.

Here, one must recall the bizarre incident that happened a few days after the newly elected president expressed his intention to reconsider his country’s diplomatic ties with the self-styled SADR. The Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs circulated a diplomatic note in which it claimed that its position on the Western Sahara had not changed.

The note went as far as to harshly criticize the president by emphasizing that Kenya’s foreign policy is not conducted through social media. It later turned out that the note did not come from the President’s office, but rather from the old guard that Algeria has historically relied on to advance its agenda. Macharia Kamu,, the official who authored that circular has just been dismissed by the Kenyan President and replaced by Mr. Korir Sing’oei.

Context in Kenya

No one can comment on the Kenyan ambassador’s position without considering the overall context stemming from the political strife in Kenya following the inauguration of President Ruto. This context is marked by attempts from many figures pushing to maintain the old guard’s foreign policy positions, in blatant disregard for the vital interests of Kenya and the new government’s perceived determination to strengthen relations with Morocco.

Stronger ties with Morocco can help Kenya benefit from the North African country’s expertise at different levels, including boosting food security. Faced with water scarcity and the high cost of fertilizers, Kenya is highly dependent on agriculture, which represents 30% its of economy.

Given this highly sensitive context of the Kenyan old guard’s struggle to resist, even derail the foreign policy changes promised by the country’s new authorities, it makes little or no sense to rush to the conclusion that the Kenyan UN representative’s abstention this past Thursday constitutes a major setback for Moroccan diplomacy.

As such, it would be more judicious to allow some time to pass and wait until the new government takes the reins. Only then could we have a clearer idea about the direction of the new Kenyan government and be able to assess whether Moroccan diplomacy achieved any success in Kenya.

Samir Bennis is the co-founder of Morocco World News. You can follow him on Twitter @SamirBennis.