Just as if one of his infamous statements about his popularity — such as when he said: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters” — were true, Trump maintained the support of his loyal base.
It was Jan. 20, 2021, around 8 a.m. EST, when then-President Donald Trump left the White House holding his wife’s hand as they boarded Marine One, heading to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.
Trump’s longtime effort to challenge the outcome of the 2020 election reached its end; President Joe Biden was to assume presidential powers at noon that day.
It was over, or at least that’s what some thought.
Some thought this was the end for Trump. Perhaps, they recalled the fates of George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter, presidents in the one-term club. Such a fate involves stepping aside from politics and, maybe, appearing on media programs, writing personal memoirs — or simply enjoying free time playing golf.
Yet for others, at least for some of us who had studied Trump and his presidency, it was obvious that this was far from the end of the Trumpian era. Not this time.
This became even clearer from his statement just before boarding Marine One: “Hopefully it’s not a long-term goodbye. We will see each other again.” He reminded everyone that he was not planning to move away from politics.
And so it was. We did see him again, and it was not a long-term goodbye. Trump retained his influential role in American politics, particularly within the Republican Party.
As X (formerly known as Twitter) and Facebook shut down his accounts, Trump founded his own media platform, Truth Media. Through his posts on his social media platform, public statements, and crowded rallies, he exerted his political influence.
Coming short of directly challenging the 2020 election outcome, Trump may have had many objectives, including returning to the Oval Office, but one goal was clear: revenge.
Zeroing in on the Republican Primaries, Trump aimed to oust every state and national elected Republican who stood against, or just did not help, his efforts to challenge the 2020 election results, setting electoral challenges for them by endorsing their political rivals.
This vindictive move proved to be politically costly for the former president. Some of his candidates, especially those representing the most extreme wing of the MAGA movement (Make America Great Again), lost either to other fellow moderate Republicans in the Primaries or to Democrats in what were anticipated to be easy midterm races in the Republicans’ expected “red wave.”
There was no red wave; instead, a Republican underperformance. This was not only a major blow to Trump’s grip on power within the Republican Party, but also a significant disappointment for the party’s electoral ambitions.
Indeed, while there were other factors in play — such as the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade — Trump-backed candidates did compromise the Republicans’ chances of controlling the Senate and securing a significant majority in the House.
In Washington, D.C., the Republican story was one of defeat, blame-shifting, and sorrow – and Trump was its main character.
Elsewhere, however, on the U.S. East Coast in Florida, there was a different story. This was Ron DeSantis’, marked by his 20-point victory in the gubernatorial race. A young, and seemingly next-generation politician, DeSantis presented himself to his fellow Republicans as an alternative to Donald Trump.
Out of these Republican stories of defeat and victory, a deep questioning of Trump’s influence within the Republican Party began.
And yes, it seemed for a while that this was the beginning of the end for Trump, or at least that’s what some thought.
An increasing number of Republicans began to publicly challenge former president Trump, blaming him for the Republican underperformance in the midterms; leading conservative media platforms, such as Fox News, and major political donors started to shift their support away from Trump, rallying behind his new rival, DeSantis; and some polls started to reveal what seemed to be a decrease in Trump’s popularity within the Republican Party, presenting him nearly neck-and-neck with DeSantis.
Yet, while shaken, Trump’s political support did not vanish.
What seemed to be a temporary setback for Trump in the polls, was reversed with an unprecedented precedent: Trump became the first president in American history to be indicted.
Normally, a criminal indictment would end the future political ambitions of any American elected official. But let me be clear: Trump is not a normal candidate. What was expected to terminate his political aspiration did only strengthen his lead over the republican party, making him the Republican front-runner.
In other words: He is all but the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential elections.
Now that we are in the midst of the Republican primaries, knowing all that we know now, let us not make the same mistake we made back in 2015.
We have been here before: We underestimated Trump’s chances for the Oval Office back in 2015; we were proven wrong. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” George Santayana once said.
Are we going to forget the 2015 election and make the same mistake again?
You may say: “Mohammed, wait, what about the 2020 election? … Trump lost to Biden … he is no longer the political figure we once knew,” echoing what a lot of Democrats have been saying. Additionally, you may note that a significant portion of Trump-backed candidates struggled in the last midterm elections.
I would start with the latter, and say, yes, I agree with you: “his candidates,” not him. It was his candidates who did underperform in the 2022 midterms; and there is a difference between a Trumpian political copy and Trump himself, who remains the most popular figure in the Republican Party.
And regarding the 2020 election, let me stress that this election should be viewed as an exception because of the extremely exceptional incident with which it coincided: a once-in-a-century pandemic that hit the U.S. and the world.
The tragic COVID-19 deaths, the arduous lockdown measures, and the severe economic cost: These were all major causes of outrage for Americans voters, which surely influenced their votes in the ballot box in 2020.
Political incumbents pay a political price for major crises, even if these crises are not of their own making.
Just as the high inflation and the energy crisis in the late 1970s cost Jimmy Carter his presidency in 1980, and just as the recession cost George H.W. Bush his presidency in 1992, it was the COVID-19 that cost Donald Trump the White House in 2020.
Surprisingly enough, despite the devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the widespread criticism of the Trump administration’s response, Biden’s win was not a “landslide” victory; the election was close.
We all remember Trump’s astonishing win in Florida, especially among Latino voters. And in the swing states – mainly Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – Biden’s margin of victory was not as high as anticipated; a win that reinforces a remarkable suggestion: Had it not been for COVID-19, Trump might have retained the presidency.
So, let’s not exaggerate the 2020 election results.
Trump is the leading candidate for the Republican Party’s nomination. The four indictments, if anything, have only boosted his popularity within the Republican Party, giving his reelection campaign significant political momentum.
Considering all of this, and given that Trump is the likely Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, the 2024 election seems to be heading toward a second Biden-Trump matchup.
This brings us to Mr. Biden.
There is relief among Democrats about facing Trump in 2024, embracing a belief that Trump is the best candidate Biden could beat, for a second time.
Yet this belief is far from being the case, not only because the 2024 election will be different from 2020, but also because Biden is facing some deep political challenges.
Already the oldest person to serve as U.S. President, Biden would be 82 years old by the end of his term, sparking serious concerns among American voters about his health and ability to fulfill the duties of the office of the presidency in a second term.
Also, the economy is a significant challenge for Biden in a post-pandemic era and internationally intense world; as inflation reached decades-high levels in the U.S., hitting the pockets of Americans.
Not to mention the president’s son, Hunter Biden’s mounting legal challenges after being indicted on tax charges, and the political repercussions this may bring for Biden.
And, indeed, not to mention Biden’s unwavering support for Israel’s hostilities against Palestinians’; a support that could fracture the President’s political coalition even more, as he loses support from core Democratic electorate groups: young, people of color, and Muslims.
Polls are already starting to paint a dark picture for Biden in 2024.
The New York Times and Siena College poll has shown Trump ahead of Biden in five of the six most key battleground swing states. Biden trails Trump in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; while leading only in one state, Wisconsin.
This is not the only poll indicating challenges for Biden in 2024: Similar trends are seen in CBS News and ABC News/Ipsos polls.
Biden’s approval ratings are falling; Trump’s appear to be recovering, gradually. While much could happen in the nearly next 11 months before the 2024 elections, the political sphere currently seems to favor Trump, with Biden’s challenges intensifying.
So for those betting on the next U.S. president, don’t put all your money on Biden. Don’t forget the candidate who “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and … wouldn’t lose any voters.” He stands a real chance of becoming the 47th U.S. President.
