Rabat – Despite the widespread belief that Moroccan society is becoming increasingly polarized with the erosion of the middle class, a recent study shows that poverty in Morocco is, in fact, shrinking, and the middle class is continuing to grow.
Conducted by The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), the study found that the incidence of poverty – the proportion or percentage of the population that falls below a certain poverty – dropped from 14% in 2012 to 9.6% in 2019 in Morocco.
Beyond the overall drop in the poverty rates, the study found that the severity measure of poverty – depth or intensity of poverty – decreased by almost 60% over the period, reflecting that poverty has shrunk and inequality narrowed.
“There has been pro-poor growth over the period. This means that the poorest have experienced a relative improvement in their situation, as has a significant portion of the middle class,” the report reads.
The center further argues that despite the prevailing perception of deteriorating living standards, “no data-based study has been conducted to confirm this perception.”
The middle class has, likewise, strengthened over the study period. In 2012, the middle class accounted for 53% of the overall population. Seven years later, their share of the population rose to 61%, up 16%.
The report further maintains that the upper class has in fact shrunk, with the middle class emerging as the dominant segment in rural areas, exceeding 70% in 2019, gaining more than 6 percentage points over the period.
Urban areas have also witnessed an expansion of the middle class. By 2019, the middle class represented two-thirds of the urban population, marking nearly a 15% increase compared to 2012.
The consolidating middle class, coupled with the narrowing of poverty meant that inequality and polarization eased throughout the study period.
“We indeed observe a significant decrease in inequality for the three measures considered at the national level and for the two areas considered,” the report reads.
According to the report, rural areas experience the largest decrease in inequality and polarization, with the Theil index – a statistical measure used to quantify economic inequality within a population – dropping by 40%. Meanwhile, urban areas consistently exhibit greater inequality, both in 2012 and 2019.
The study used data from the 2012 and 2019 waves of the National Observatory of Human Development’s Household Panel Survey (HPS).
The sample size of the 2012 survey was approximately 8,000 households, with nearly 61% of Moroccans living in urban areas and 39% in rural areas in 2012. In 2019, 16,879 households were surveyed, among which nearly 63% live in urban areas and 37% in rural areas.
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