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Marrakech – Morocco’s agricultural sector, a vital component of the country’s economy, representing 10% of its GDP, is facing unprecedented challenges due to extreme weather events and changing climate patterns.
A recently released report by leading global insurance company Swiss Re highlights the severe impacts on crop production and farmers’ livelihoods.
The 2023-2024 winter crop season has been particularly harsh, with drought conditions reducing the seeded area of rainfed winter crops by almost a quarter compared to previous years.
Crops that did emerge suffered from water and heat stress, continuing a trend of poor harvests in recent years.
Swiss Re’s analysis, using process-based crop growth models (CGMs), reveals alarming trends for non-irrigated wheat production in Morocco.
The simulations show that “yield variability has now reached levels that are unprecedented in the historical period,” with four out of the last five years seeing country-level wheat yields below the long-term average.
According to the report, “contemporary yield variability has increased by 40% compared to the 1990s.” This coincides with increasing variability in seasonal rainfall, attributed to changes in the number of dry days and the seasonal distribution of rainfall.
Climate change is also affecting the growing season. The Swiss Re analysis found that there has been an uptick in the growth rate in response to warmer temperatures, with the time from seeding to the beginning of grain filling now 2-3 weeks shorter compared to the mid-20th century.
The Moroccan government has taken steps to address these challenges. The Green Morocco Plan, introduced in 2008 and succeeded by the Generation Green 2020-2030 strategy, has supported farmers in modernizing irrigation systems and improving water management efficiency.
However, the report suggests more action is needed. It recommends adopting new crop varieties, implementing modern non-conventional management practices such as agroforestry, and adapting crop insurance schemes to better reflect the changing risk landscape.
The agricultural insurance sector in Morocco, the second largest in Africa by premium income, may need to evolve. The report proposes “maintaining traditional indemnity-based schemes for stable production areas and offering a different type of crop insurance in highly vulnerable areas” as a potential solution.
Read also: Morocco Imported Over 200,000 Tons of Grains from Russia in First Half of 2024
