Marrakech – France’s recent endorsement of Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Sahara region marks the latest in a string of diplomatic victories for the Kingdom in its efforts to resolve the decades-long territorial dispute, two experts have concluded.
They argue that the French position, which follows in the footsteps of the United States, Spain, Israel and a growing list of Arab and African nations in recent years, has dealt a significant blow to separatist aims in the region.
Writing for the European opinion-making platform Modern Diplomacy, Jamal Ait Laadam, a specialist in North African affairs at China’s Jilin University, argues that France’s move reflects “the increasing international community’s conviction of the seriousness of separatist movements that do not lead to development and democracy.”
Forcing Algeria’s hand
He notes that the French government is committed to supporting Morocco’s proposed Autonomy Plan as “the rational alternative for resolving the Sahara territorial conflict” in a way that maintains Moroccan territorial integrity while offering the local population democratic governance over their own affairs.
This newfound French position is a nightmare scenario for neighboring Algeria, Ait Laadam argues, highlighting that Algerian foreign policy has long sought to undermine efforts to resolve the conflict between Morocco and the Algiers-backed separatist Polisario Front.
By escalating tensions and diverting attention from its own internal issues, Algeria “has effectively become a third party in the Sahara issue,” he writes.
According to Ait Laadam, “The Kingdom of Morocco and the United Nations assert that it is time to call Algeria to the negotiation process as a main actor due to inadequate mutual trust among the concerned parties, specifically the Polisario Front.”
“Together the US and France firmly insist that diplomacy is a process of unbroken mediations, steady convincing, and shared reconciliations if necessary. Morocco and the United Nations have plainly warned Algeria and other involved parties to come back to the negotiation table,” he further adds.
Also writing for Modern Diplomacy, Owen Kirby, regional director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Republican Institute, says the increasingly eroding international solidarity with the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) controlled by the Polisario has coincided with massive Moroccan investments to transform the region’s infrastructure and economy.
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He points to the scheduled 2028 completion of a $1 billion port project in Dakhla as laying the foundation for the territory to become a commercial gateway to sub-Saharan Africa.
“The port and accompanying transportation investments will service not only exports of the region’s natural resources including from its rich fisheries and phosphate deposits, but will also provide a gateway to and access for landlocked sub-Saharan states to the Atlantic and markets beyond; a major reason that foreign consulates, including those of neighboring states, have sprouted up in recent years,” Kirby notes.
“Hitherto isolated, [the southern provinces are] now on the verge of making a major entrance on the regional and global stage, shedding a previous image of instability and backwardness.”
However, he cautions that the continued political limbo produced by the conflict means many of the region’s inhabitants, especially those residing in refugee camps across the Algerian border, risk being left behind even as institutions of regional autonomy within a sovereign Morocco are already taking root.
“At present, roughly 175,000 former residents of the territory reside in squalid refugee camps across the border in a state of limbo perpetuated by political competition and rivalry – a legacy of the region’s colonial past,” he states.
“It is about time for all parties to look to the future so all former inhabitants and their descendants of Spanish Sahara can reap the rewards of the region’s promising future.”
Both analysts agree that the time has come for the international community to fully get behind Morocco’s efforts to resolve the Sahara issue once and for all.
With a growing consensus emerging around the viability of the Moroccan Autonomy Plan, they argue, it is in the interest of lasting peace and shared prosperity for all parties to now come to the negotiating table in good faith.
Only then can the region’s promising future be one that benefits all inhabitants of Morocco’s southern provinces.
As Ait Laadam concludes, “The French diplomacy has acknowledged the significance of the Moroccan Sahara issue. It is time to strengthen diplomatic cooperation to realistically resolve this conflict, particularly because other countries have shown support by opening consular institutions in the Sahara’s cities.”
