Rabat – The Council of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) convened today for its third quarterly meeting of 2024, where it examined the current national and international economic landscape alongside the bank’s medium-term macroeconomic projections.
BAM forecasts a slowdown in economic growth to 2.8% by the end of 2024, with a rebound to 4.4% expected in 2025.
This outlook accounts for a projected 6.9% decline in agricultural value added in 2024, followed by an anticipated 8.6% increase in 2025, based on an average cereal production of 55 million quintals.
Non-agricultural growth, fueled by manufacturing, extractive industries, and tourism, is projected to improve from 3.6% in 2023 to 3.9% in both 2024 and 2025.
According to the BAM’s statement, while agricultural production is heavily influenced by weather conditions, data suggests a sustained recovery in non-agricultural activities, which is likely to be bolstered in the medium term by rising public and private investment.
In terms of public finances, the budget execution for the first eight months of 2024 revealed an 11.2% rise in ordinary revenues, primarily due to strong tax performance.
Conversely, total expenditures increased by 8.9%, indicating higher spending on goods, services, and investments.
Considering these results, projected economic activity, and the outlined directives of the 2025 Finance Bill, Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts that the budget deficit will stabilize at approximately 4.4% of GDP in 2024, before falling to 3.9% of GDP in 2025.
Given these factors, the council determined that it was prudent to maintain the current monetary policy, opting to keep the key interest rate steady at 2.75% while closely observing the changing economic and social environment.
