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Rabat – Morocco’s national economy saw a modest boost in growth during the third quarter of 2024, with the rate rising to 2.8%, compared to the 2.4% average recorded in the first half of the year.
The High Commission for Planning (HCP) report attributes Morocco’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2024 to a continued recovery in domestic demand and a robust increase in exports, which boosted value across all sectors except agriculture and fishing.
According to the HCP’s Q3 2024 economic outlook, growth excluding agriculture reached 3.6% year-on-year, with secondary sectors seeing a 4.4% rise in activity.
The extractive industries, in particular, experienced a strong recovery, growing 15.4% annually, driven by a rebound in raw material exports and sustained demand from local processing industries.
National phosphate exports, along with derivatives, saw significant growth in Q3 2024, which the HCP notes were driven by reduced Chinese supply for the third consecutive quarter and the launch of new production capacities for Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Triple Super Phosphate (TSP).
This surge in industrial demand led to an 18.9% year-on-year increase in raw phosphate production. Manufacturing industries also gained momentum, contributing an additional 0.2 percentage points to overall economic growth, with textiles and certain agro-industry sectors recovering due to rising foreign sales.
As chemical industries surge, agriculture and services weaken in Q3
Meanwhile, chemical industries maintained a solid 9.7% growth, supported by lower import prices for sulfur and ammonia. However, growth in electrical and transport equipment manufacturing remained weak, impacted by sluggish sales in European markets.
The construction sector recorded a 4.8% year-on-year growth in value in Q3 2024, up from 3.6% in the previous quarter, which the report states was driven by a rebound in building activity and stronger public works, amid stable production prices. The HCP’s survey confirmed this positive trend, noting increased use of materials like cement, steel, and blocks, alongside a 12-point improvement in order book evaluations.
However, the service sector saw a continued slowdown in growth, a trend persisting since mid-2023. The value added by tertiary industries grew 3.4% year-on-year, down from the 5.8% average between 2022 and 2023. While tourism and transportation maintained strong performance post-COVID, sectors like commerce, financial services, and communication experienced a cyclical slowdown in 2024 due to weakening demand.
Regarding the agricultural sector, the HCP noted a 4.1% decline in its value-added in Q3 2024, following a 4% contradiction in the first half of the year.
The HCP noted that the underperformance in agriculture during Q3 2024 returned the sector to its average quarterly level from four years earlier, with contrasting trends between plant and animal production.
Despite unfavorable weather conditions, seasonal vegetable harvests improved, resulting in lower vegetable prices and a surge in exports of tomatoes, potatoes, and small vegetables. However, other crops and most animal production saw a decline, with poultry production notably falling by 3.3%.
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While the poultry sector showed resilience in early 2024, bolstered by a recovery in compound feed prices and offsetting a prior decline in red meat production, it faced challenges from June 2024 onward.
A reduced supply of chicks, due to lower national production and increased exports of day-old chicks, led to a 27.6% rise in chicken prices. Meanwhile, red meat prices surged, despite a more than 50% increase in live animal imports during the same period.
Earlier this month, Morocco’s economy saw a slight slowdown in the second quarter of 2024, with growth easing to 2.4%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year. The HCP’s Q2 2024 report highlighted a significant contraction in the primary sector, where seasonally adjusted added value shrank by 5%, a sharp reversal from the 1.2% growth recorded in Q2 2023.
Despite this, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projected 2.9% growth for Morocco in 2024. The Council of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has also reviewed the country’s economic conditions, forecasting a slight decline in growth to 2.8% by year-end, followed by a rebound to 4.4% in 2025.
