Rabat – Morocco’s economy is expected to pick up momentum at the start of 2025, following a moderation in growth by the end of 2024.
The latest updates from the High Commission for Planning (HCP), predict the national GDP to grow by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 before accelerating to 3.5% in the first quarter of 2025.
This forecast is contingent on the agricultural sector, with the assumption that there will be a return of rainfall to near-normal seasonal levels during the winter.
The HCP anticipates non-agricultural activities to maintain growth above the medium-term trend, with rates of 3.7% and 3.5% expected in the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, respectively. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic activity, although its pace will slow slightly compared to the third quarter.
Household consumption is expected to continue growing, supported by social and tax measures targeting both public and private sectors, as well as an ease in inflation.
The data forecasts spending by households to increase by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 3.4% in the first quarter of 2025, year-on-year. Public administration consumption will also contribute to growth due to increased spending on goods, services, and operations, HCP noted.
While private companies are likely to reduce their investment activities due to slower external demand growth and rising wage costs, public investment in infrastructure, sports events, and water desalination projects will remain strong. HCP projects gross investment to grow by 9.8% in the last quarter of 2024 and 8.8% in the first quarter of 2025.
International trade will continue to have a negative impact on overall growth, but experts expect this effect to lessen in early 2025. Analysts forecast exports to rise by 7.1% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 6.2% in the previous quarter, while imports are expected to grow at a slower pace due to moderated domestic demand.
HCP predicts inflationary pressures will remain limited during this period. The data also projects consumer prices to rise by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter. This decline reflects slower increases in non-food and food product prices, as well as a continued drop in fresh produce prices. Global energy prices are also expected to contribute negatively to overall inflation.
However, analysts expect core inflation, which excludes state-controlled and volatile prices, to rise slightly to 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 2.3%. This is due to higher prices for processed food, manufactured goods, and various services including transportation and healthcare.
