Rabat – Like many countries across the world, Morocco is facing a significant demographic shift due to an ageing population, a decline in birth rates, and other related, notable social and economic implications.
The country’s latest census, conducted last year, suggests that Morocco is home to over 37 million people, with the average household size decreasing from 4.6 to 3.9 persons between 2014 and 2024 at the national level.
One notable highlight is how Morocco’s population structure has witnessed profound shifts that have reshaped the demographic pyramid.
Growing ageing population
The latest census of Morocco shows that the number of Moroccans aged under 15 declined from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024.
The proportion of the working age population between 15 and 59 years also dropped from 62.4% to 59.7%.
Meanwhile, the senior population, those aged 60 and over, rose from 9.4% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024.
This means that the number of people aged 60 and above reached around 5 million, compared to 3.2 million in 2014.
The number shows an annual growth rate of 4.6%, outpacing the overall population growth of 0.85% — reflecting the accelerated pace of population aging and a remarkable shift in the country’s demographic structure.
Half or more of Morocco’s senior population, which stands at 58.8%, is under the age of 70. Those aged 70 to 79 account for 28.3% of the national population.
Those aged 80 and above make up 12.9% of the population, and by 2050, this age group is expected to represent 23.2% of the total population, or about 10 million people.
Taking gender into perspective, statistics show that there were approximately 2.3 million elderly women in 2022. The number was 100,000 more than that of elderly men in the same age group.
Experts expect the gap to widen in the coming years, with the number of elderly women reaching 5.4 million by 2050, about 770,000 more than men.
Some of the main factors behind this change are the higher life expectancy at birth for women, compared to men.
Official statistics from the Moroccan government attribute the situation to social and economic changes, including the integration of women into the labor market, which placed “new pressures on the traditional model of family solidarity.”
While it may appear normal to have people with gray hair across Morocco, many reports highlighted how an ageing population could affect a country.
According to the International Monetary Fund, richer countries with populations getting older face GDP growth slowdown, and pressure on government budgets.
“An aging population and slower labor force growth affect economies in many ways — the growth of GDP slows, working-age people pay more to support the elderly, and public budgets strain under the burden of the higher total cost of health and retirement programs for old people,” IMF said in a report posted in 2017.
This shift toward an ageing population comes amid a layer of complexity, compounding existing challenges, including high youth unemployment, socio-economic inequalities, and related social dysfunctions.
The latest statistics from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in November last year show that the national unemployment rate climbed to 13.6%, with rural areas experiencing an increase from 7% to 7.4% while the urban area rate held at 17%.
Beyond employment, this deepening demographic shift comes amid inadequate healthcare services, a shortage of doctors, and under-equipped medical facilities – a situation that raises urgent questions on how the country is set to care for its growing elderly population.
One challenge piling onto another
A recent report by the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) indicates that one in four Moroccans is without medical insurance.
King Mohammed VI has urged the government to ensure the implementation of a universal social security system, benefiting all categories in Morocco.
In line with this royal directive, the government has in recent years repeatedly pledged to efforts to expand social protection to all workers and vulnerable populations
In January this year, the House of Representatives introduced legislation proposing reforms to the country’s social security system.
The changes cover the National Social Security Fund, also known as CNSS, authorizing it to manage social protection programs through frameworks or conventions and to also handle escalating debt concerns.
However, both recent media reports and official statements have pointed to the persistence of the challenges that have long affected the health sector, including the situation of the elderly.
In 2015, the Global AgeWatch Index ranked Morocco 84th out of 96 in an index that ranks countries based on the social and economic well-being of people over 60, taking into account indicators, including income security, health status, capability, and enabling environment.
Among the socio-economic crises that also prevail is immigration.
The Moroccan Ministry of Solidarity and Social Integration has made several pledges to improve social care institutions for the elderly.
Placing elderly people in care centers is not a common practice in Morocco. But many seniors are increasingly ending up there, either because of their personal choice or because they are homeless or abandoned.
The ministry views social care centers for the elderly as important, as they provide reception, shelter, food, medical care, and social support.
Data from the ministry indicate that the number of social care institutions for the elderly in 2021 totalled 70, including 59 licensed institutions distributed across Morocco. The beneficiaries of the centers reached 5,794 elderly people, including 2,610 women, according to a 2019 assessment from the same source.
Who will take over the ageing population?
Amid the challenging situation, one of the most pressing socio-economic challenges facing Morocco is emigration. A significant number of youth are dreaming of leaving in search of a better life.
While some turn to education as an opportunity to unlock emigration days for them, others throw themselves into the sea in hopes of reaching Spain or at least its nearby enclaves, from where they can reach a larger European corridor.
The exodus creates a worrying imbalance as more youth leave, with questions raised on who will care for the growing elderly population left behind.
A recent poll from the Afrobarometer survey in May shows that more than one-quarter of Moroccans think about leaving their homeland.
The survey further shows that 26.8% of participants have considered leaving the country to varying degrees.
This comes amid a drop in fertility rate and an increase in mortality rate in Morocco.
In 2024, the country’s fertility rate stood at 2.28, a 0.8% decline compared to 2023.
In addition to this, Morocco faces issues with maternal and infant mortality, which remain high despite government efforts.
In May, the World Bank said that despite the commendable progress, important gaps remain between rural and urban areas.
“Out of 100,000 live births in 2018, 111 mothers died in rural areas compared with 45 in urban areas,” the World Bank said, noting that there were also 26 deaths per 1,000 births in rural areas compared with 19 in urban areas.
Health Minister Amine Tahraoui emphasized Morocco’s efforts in January, noting a 70% reduction in the natural mortality rate over the past two decades. Morocco’s maternal mortality rate dropped from 244 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2000 to 72 deaths by 2020, he said.
