On one level, the decades-long Western Sahara dispute involving Algeria, Morocco, and the Polisario Front pitted neighbor against neighbor in a region that to this day is still untangling the legacy of European colonialism.
Western Sahara’s history—nor the history of the peoples of the wider Maghreb region—did not begin or end with an advisory opinion from The Hague in 1975. With hindsight and the passage of time, a complex regional narrative has given meaning to the words of American poet Maya Angelou: “History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again.”
Importantly, for Moroccan, Algerian and Sahwari leaders, the conditions in the coming two years may be optimal to begin a dialogue about peace, growth, culture, and, importantly, harmony.
Growth & diplomacy
As international peacemaking takes on a new dynamic—economic development and incentivization—there is now an opportunity for the entire Maghreb region to promote itself as a gateway for post-conflict opportunity. In a world with rapidly shifting supply chain systems, this is not just hyperbole. There’s also a demographic reality: Two-thirds of Africa’s population is under 30. Young people are anxious for opportunity in the post-industrial, post-pandemic world, where BMW cars are made in South Carolina, Citroën cars are assembled in Morocco, and Ford SUVs are built in Mexico.
Last week in Rabat, following talks with Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said that the administration will back commercial American investments “in all of Morocco, including Western Sahara.”
The news follows a May decision by the French Development Agency (AFD) to begin investments of up to 150 million euros in Western Sahara over the next two years. These decisions are not born of a lack of compassion for non-frontpage conflicts, but rather for the need for diplomatic relationships that advance mutual interests in a competitive post-pandemic global system.
There’s a new subtle urgency, too, that has informed diplomacy. US President Donald Trump brings a clock-is-ticking element that has informed his worldview, from Middle East conflicts to Pacific basin trade issues. President Trump’s instincts may also incentivize those involved in the Sahara conflict.
In August, Trump cajoled an Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal regarding the long-simmering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. A region unknown to a vast majority of Americans, but for whom Trump knew a deal could be struck.
In June, following mediation by the United States and Qatar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement that ends three decades of instability in eastern DRC. Progress is slow, but American diplomatic engagement concerning implementation benchmarks is persistent.
The Sahara conflict may also lend itself to a diplomacy that emphasizes neutral ground, free-form discussions over negotiating table ultimatums. US envoy Steven Witkoff, for example, is a man with President Trump’s ear and presents a profile of someone less interested in diplomatic sparring and re-litigating the post-colonial 1970s than in creating actionable results for the future. The Lebanese-born US Special Advisor for Africa, Massad Boulos, comes with considerable political and business experience in the MENA region. New models of diplomacy and new realities in the Maghreb require thinking outside the box.
Just concluded security and trade agreements between President Trump and several Gulf States, as well as with NATO concerning support for Ukraine, reveal the importance of Witkoff and others. Several of these agreements will likely involve subsequent trade components that connect important American industrial, agricultural, military, and technology products with foreign markets. Whether it’s readmitting Turkiye to the F-35 fighter program or AI technology for supportive Gulf state allies, principled diplomacy and trade issues can exist in the same space.
And there is also a noticeable devolution in the mechanics of conflict resolution. In May, China launched the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed), a China-based organization focused primarily on political and economic dispute mediation. From ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) confidence-building efforts to African Union peacekeepers and Gulf-based hostage negotiators, regional solutions have gained favor over the past decade as an alternative or a supplement to the United Nations.
The United Nations still matters, but “buy local” is taking on a meaning in diplomacy, too. Perhaps there is something here for Algerian and Sahrawi leadership to ponder.
Autonomy
Autonomy can be complex and is often misunderstood. The Basque regional conflict in Spain lasted five decades before a cessation of armed activity in 2011. After unrest and an inconsequential voter referendum on independence in 2017, serious discussions over fiscal autonomy for the Catalonia region of Spain are well underway. Italy has just begun the process of devolution to the regions on some fiscal and spending matters.
In the United States, thirteen years separate the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and the adoption of the United States Constitution. Leaders like John Adams would have to work hard for several more years to ensure that a destructive war was followed by a durable federal union rather than post-conflict inertia among disparate colonial territories.
Morocco’s 2007 Autonomy Proposal presented to the UN Security Council sought to begin the process of winding down the conflict through reconciliation and confidence-building measures. “The Sahara populations will themselves run their affairs democratically, through legislative, executive and judicial bodies enjoying exclusive powers. They will have the financial resources needed for the region’s development in all fields…”
Morocco’s autonomy proposal outlines components of fiscal autonomy: “The Sahara autonomous Region will have the financial resources required for its development in all areas. Resources will come, in particular, from: Taxes, duties and regional levies enacted by the Region’s competent authorities.” Equitable resource access for all of the region’s citizens is not only a key component of the Sahara autonomy plan, it is key to an economically viable future for the region as temperatures in North Africa rise and the Sahara Desert expands.
The current incentives for Morocco, Algeria and Sahwari leaders are many. Spurred on by growing ties across the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco is moving forward with development in the region, from a one billion dollar new port facility in Dakhla along the coast to expanded renewable energy and tourist infrastructure along the country’s long Atlantic coastline. Little by little, North African solar power will help drive the EU economy, an unimaginable concept in 1975.
Complex histories
The western end of the Sahara is both fascinating and perplexing. Bedouin Arab tribes explored the lands of the Western Sahara and western Maghreb regions in the 13th century, bringing a form of Arabic language (Hassaniya) that is still widely spoken in the region today. The overlap of Bedouin, Sahwari, Arab, and Amazigh exploration creates a rich history, from the famed Sijilmasa-Timbuktu trade routes to a brief British-German naval battle in 1914 off the west African coast at Rio de Oro. Fluctuating trade and migration routes created a rich cultural tapestry that survived the colonial era.
Importantly, today and in the future, the Sahwari people and Moroccans themselves are tasked with playing a foundational post-conflict role in a region that is slightly larger in size than the state of Oregon. Over 700,000 inhabitants with deep connections to the entire Maghreb and neighboring Sahel nations live in the region.
The long conflict in the Western Sahara represents a window on the immediate (and dizzying) post-colonial 1970s, when the continent of (then) 415 million people was freeing itself of foreign domination and etch-a-sketch borders while coming to terms with simmering regional grievances and continent-wide euphoria. Neither the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) nor the African Export-Import Bank, resources that have given rise to impressive continental growth, existed in 1975.
The passage of time provides both hindsight and clarity. Half-measures that sought to avoid hard decisions can create stagnation, and, ultimately, conflict for conflict’s sake. Going forward, both the Sahrawi and Moroccan people deserve something that pays tribute to their enduring legacy and their hopeful future.
