In the air-conditioned halls of the United Nations, the dispute over Western Sahara has long been presented as a simple decolonization narrative. However, in a remarkable departure from diplomatic convention, The UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, has taken an unprecedented step by explicitly designating Algeria as a central actor in the dispute. Speaking at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the UN diplomat stated that the conflict is primarily between Morocco and Algeria, relegating the Polisario to the status of a mere “group.”
This candid assessment challenges the foundational narrative that Algeria has carefully constructed and maintained for nearly fifty years. Behind Algeria’s stated commitment to self-determination and anti-colonial principles lies a more complex reality shaped by historical grievances, regional rivalry, and what some analysts describe as a deepening, psychological obsession with countering Morocco’s growing influence.
The historical roots of a manufactured conflict
The modern iteration of the Algeria-Morocco rivalry traces back to the 1963 Sand War, fought just months after Algeria’s independence over disputed border territories. Morocco’s superiority in this conflict created what one analyst Mohammed Issam Laroussi considers as a “psychological barrier” for generations of Algerian military and political elites, who grew up with the idea of avenging this early humiliation.
When Spain withdrew from Western Sahara in 1975, Algeria saw an opportunity to counter Moroccan influence by supporting the Polisario Front. This support transformed what might have been a localized dispute into a “regional proxy conflict” that would freeze North African integration for decades.
The stated principles vs. the strategic reality
Algeria’s official position frames its support for the Polisario as a matter of “ideological consistency”—part of its longstanding tradition of solidarity with oppressed peoples deprived of self-determination. Algerian diplomats consistently invoke international law, the right to self-determination, and respect for borders inherited from colonization as their guiding principles.
Beneath this principled exterior, however, lies what regional experts characterize as a calculated “strategic imperative” to counter Morocco’s regional influence. Samir Bennis, a senior political analyst specializing in Arab affairs, argues that “behind Algeria’s support for the Sahrawi cause lies a much more complex case of the Algerian establishment’s determination to simultaneously avenge historical grievances and prevent Morocco from reclaiming a territory that would increase its strategic depth and make it the undisputed regional leader of the Maghreb.”
This perspective is reinforced by Algeria’s recent diplomatic manoeuvres meddling with domestic affairs of other countries – including the attempted revival of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to derail the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline project, disrupt the creation of free-trade zones with Niger and Mali, and counter Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative for the Sahel.
The regional rivalry factor
The Western Sahara dispute has become the primary battleground in a broader “regional competition” for influence in North Africa, with Algeria and Morocco pursuing sharply contrasting foreign policy models.
Rabat has engaged in extensive diplomatic outreach across Africa, rejoined the African Union in 2017 after a 33-year absence, and positioned itself as a key player in African affairs through economic diplomacy and strategic connectivity.
Meanwhile, Algiers has maintained its traditional foreign policy based on sovereignty, non-alignment, and non-intervention, a legacy of its revolutionary past that increasingly leaves it diplomatically isolated.
The military dimension of this rivalry has intensified significantly, with both nations engaging in an “arms race” that accounts for approximately 90% of all military spending in North Africa. Algeria allocated roughly 8% of its GDP to defense in 2023—one of the highest ratios globally—while Morocco has steadily increased its own defence budget to approximately $5.5 billion in 2024.
The psychological dimension and domestic politics
Experts point to a psychological undercurrent in Algeria’s stance that transcends conventional geopolitical analysis. The Atlantic Council’s research suggests Algeria’s military and political leaders harbor “unresolved grievances” against Morocco, which contribute to ongoing tensions.
This perspective is echoed in Algerian political circles, where some voices have begun questioning the costs of this longstanding fixation. Algerian politician Noureddine Boukrouh delivered a devastating assessment, noting that Algeria has squandered “no less than fifty billion dollars over fifty years” on the Western Sahara issue, while Morocco secured the actual strategic advantages.
For the Algerian military establishment, the Western Sahara conflict serves as a useful tool for domestic mobilization, allowing the regime to “galvanize nationalist fervor against its enemies” and “divert public opinion from the country’s economic, social, and political problems.”
The crumbling diplomatic front
Algeria’s position has suffered significant diplomatic setbacks in recent years, creating what one analyst describes as “deepening diplomatic disarray” in Algiers. The dominos began falling with the 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, followed by similar endorsements from Spain, the United Kingdom, Portugal, and, most recently, France.
This diplomatic reversal has left Algeria increasingly isolated on the international stage. As one assessment noted, “Algeria seems to be furious that Morocco, in the short time since its return to the AU, has effectively destroyed all the work that Algerian diplomacy had done for three decades to get the AU to support a self-determination referendum fully”.
The French decision in 2024 to endorse Morocco’s autonomy plan was particularly stinging, prompting Algeria to recall its ambassador from Paris and denounce France and Morocco as “colonial powers, new and old”.
The high cost of self-deception
As Morocco extends olive branches to Algeria—with King Mohammed VI recently addressing “brothers in Algeria” and calling for “frank, responsible, fraternal and sincere dialogue”—the ball appears to be in Algeria’s court. The Moroccan monarch’s offer of a “consensual solution, with no winner or loser” represents both a diplomatic gesture and a strategic manoeuvre that places Algeria in the position of either engaging with reason or appearing as a reckless regime.
The ultimate tragedy of Algeria’s self-deception about Western Sahara may lie in the human cost of the prolonged conflict. As one observer noted, Sahrawis are “robbed of their agency by a zero-sum game for influence between two regional rivals. Meanwhile, the people of Algeria continue to pay the price through stunted economic opportunities, heightened military expenditures, and the lost potential of a unified Maghreb.
The question now is whether Algeria will continue telling itself stories about the Moroccan Sahara that increasingly diverge from geopolitical realities, or whether it will acknowledge what analysts have long argued, that this conflict serves neither the Sahrawi people nor Algeria’s own national interests, but rather perpetuates a costly legacy of rivalry and resentment.
