Rabat – Morocco is set to enter 2026 with a slightly faster pace of economic activity. New projections from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) expect the country’s growth to reach 4.2% in the first quarter, compared with 4% at the end of 2025.
HCP’s latest forecast appears in the institution’s latest economic note, which assesses recent trends and short-term prospects.
This outlook takes shape at a time when the global environment remains uncertain. Weaker external demand and tighter European regulations continue to limit trade opportunities.
Despite these pressures, Morocco’s economy draws much of its momentum from domestic sectors, which help maintain stability.
Rainfall and services support activity
The anticipated improvement rests largely on agriculture and services, which together are expected to contribute nearly three percentage points to growth.
Agricultural output benefits from a sharp recovery in rainfall, with precipitation levels rising by 57% during the first two months of the 2025-2026 season.
Public measures in support of farmers further strengthen this trend. Provided winter conditions remain normal, this situation should support jobs and income in rural areas and translate into stronger household spending.
Services also remain a key source of activity. Tourism, transport, leisure, and public services continue to perform well, supported in part by the economic spillovers linked to the Africa Cup of Nations Morocco (AFCON) 2025, which boosted demand toward the end of last year.
Household spending and investment hold firm
Domestic demand remains a key driver of economic growth.
Household consumption is expected to rise by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2026, while investment should stay at a high level, with an increase estimated at 9.8%. Public infrastructure projects remain a major driver of this trend.
This internal momentum helps counterbalance weaker performance in foreign trade.
External constraints persist
On the external front, the HCP points to ongoing challenges. Slower demand in Europe, higher US tariffs, and stronger competition from Chinese producers continue to weigh on Moroccan exports.
Regulatory changes also add pressure. The European carbon border adjustment mechanism and new French rules that restrict certain offshoring activities limit export growth, which the HCP estimates at 3.9%, well below the average seen over the past five years.
End-2025 shows stable growth and easing prices
Economic growth stabilized at around 4% during the second half of 2025, following a more dynamic start to the year. Slower activity in manufacturing sectors such as metallurgy, electronics, and textiles found support from agriculture and services.
Inflation continued its downward trend for the third consecutive quarter, reaching -0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, helped by lower food and energy prices.
The HCP’s scenario rests on a careful balance between domestic resilience and external uncertainty.
A deeper global slowdown could weigh on activity, while favorable weather conditions and continued public investment could strengthen Morocco’s economic path at the start of 2026.
