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Rabat – US President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing today for a closely watched summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as tensions over trade, Taiwan, and the war in Iran test one of the world’s most consequential relationships.
Trump said before the trip he expected to hold a “long talk” with Xi about Iran and would also raise US arms sales to Taiwan, an issue Beijing has repeatedly described as the biggest risk to bilateral ties.
The meeting comes at what analysts describe as a fragile but relatively stable period in US-China relations, following months of economic tensions and strategic rivalry.
“On both sides, there is a consensus that US-China stability is important,” said Henrietta Levin, senior fellow for the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“Once you get past the question of stability, the ‘what’s next’ in the relationship gets a little more complicated, and so for that reason, the most likely thing to come out of the meeting is very little.”
Expect no major breakthroughs on tariffs and technological rivalry
Few observers expect breakthroughs, with disputes ranging from technology restrictions to Taiwan remaining deeply entrenched. The war in Iran is also expected to feature prominently in the discussions, with Beijing viewed by some analysts as an unofficial mediator because of its close ties with Tehran.
The trade relationship remains particularly sensitive after years of escalating tariffs and retaliatory measures.
The trade war began during Trump’s first term but intensified sharply in April last year, when Trump announced sweeping 34% tariffs on Chinese imports on what he called “Liberation Day.”
Beijing responded with countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, pushing tariffs between the world’s two largest economies as high as 145%.
The two countries later agreed to a temporary truce after they both acknowledged the tariffs were unsustainable. During a meeting in South Korea in October, Trump and Xi extended the truce for another year. China pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans, while Washington cut tariffs by more than half.
“China’s strategy was to promote stability by fighting back,” said Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University and an expert in international relations. “Both sides could very well issue a comprehensive trade agreement this time. But this doesn’t mean the war is over, and the agreement will have conditions.”
Analysts say the truce has done little to resolve the broader structural tensions between the two powers. China has since introduced export permit requirements for rare earth shipments, giving Beijing leverage it could tighten at any time.
“There’s been a lack of the intensive type of engagement that has characterized past summits,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society and a former US trade negotiator. “It’s a fragile truce.”
The White House said on Sunday the two governments were also expected to discuss the creation of a new “Board of Trade” aimed at maintaining dialogue on economic issues.
Technology restrictions are also expected to be a topic of discussion. The United States has imposed export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and chipmaking equipment on China since Trump’s first term.
Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has urged Washington to allow the company to continue selling advanced chips to China, arguing it would deepen Chinese dependence on American technology in the artificial intelligence sector.
But analysts say the restrictions may instead accelerate China’s push for self-sufficiency.
“China’s attitude has changed subtly,” Zhao said in written comments. “It seems more focused on advancing its domestic chip industry rather than continuing to rely on advanced chips from the United States.”
Washington’s alarming ambiguity on the Taiwan question
Taiwan is expected to remain another major flashpoint.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call two weeks before the summit that Taiwan remained the “biggest risk” to bilateral relations, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
Beijing claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, despite the two sides having been separately governed since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. China has intensified military pressure on the island in recent years through near-daily air and naval exercises.
The US is legally obligated to help Taiwan defend itself but maintains a long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.
Trump recently said he discussed arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, fueling renewed questions about Washington’s support for Taipei.
“One possibility is that China and the US can take the strategy of a sort of ‘reciprocal restraint,’ such as reducing the number of American arms sales to Taiwan, in exchange for fewer military exercises from the mainland aimed at Taiwan,” Zhao said.
Iran, Hormuz crisis plays in China’s favor
The conflict in Iran is also likely to be high on the agenda as global markets remain unsettled by fear of broader instability in the Middle East.
China has criticized the US and Israel over the war while maintaining close economic and political ties with Tehran. However, Beijing has so far avoided taking a direct mediating role.
“I don’t think China has any interest in solving the problems the US has created for itself in the Middle East,” Levin said to France24.Ahead of the summit, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Beijing to pressure Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, accusing China of indirectly financing Tehran through oil purchases.
