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Agadir – Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released its Quarterly Business Climate Survey for the second quarter of 2026 today, indicating a mixed economic trend.
The note covers activity trends observed in the first quarter of 2026, as well as forecasts for the second quarter of the year.
It states that the assessments reflect “the main assessments of business leaders as reflected in the business climate surveys conducted by the HCP for the second quarter of 2026, among companies operating in the manufacturing, extractive, energy, environmental industries, as well as the construction sector.”
Manufacturing industry
In the first quarter of 2026, manufacturing production “would have remained stable,” according to business leaders, driven by contrasting sectoral performances.
The HCP report notes increases in the chemical industry, manufacture of electrical equipment, and wearing apparel, while declines were recorded in the automotive industry, manufacture of rubber and plastic products, and manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment.
Order books were considered “at a normal level,” while employment remained stable. The capacity utilization rate in manufacturing stood at 74%.
However, supply chain pressures persisted, with the report indicating that 43% of manufacturing firms faced raw material supply difficulties, mainly from foreign sources.
Raw material stocks were considered normal, while 20% of business leaders described cash flow as “difficult,” a share reaching nearly 30% in the textiles and leather segment.
Extractive sector declines as phosphate output falls
The extractive industry recorded a downturn in Q1 2026, mainly due to a reduction in phosphate production.
The report states that “production in the extractive industry would have decreased, resulting from a decline in phosphate production.” Selling prices also fell, although employment in the sector increased during the same period.
Energy sector grows, employment declines
In contrast, the energy sector posted growth in the first quarter of 2026.
According to the HCP, production “would have increased, mainly driven by higher activity in ‘electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.’” Selling prices also increased.
However, employment moved in the opposite direction, with the report noting that “employment would have declined over the same period.”
For the environmental industry, HCP noted that it remained broadly unchanged, with production stability attributed to stagnation in water-related activities.
The report highlights stability in “water collection, treatment and supply,” with order books at a normal level and employment unchanged.
Construction sector expands with stronger employment
The construction sector showed an overall increase in activity in Q1 2026.
This growth was driven by building construction and specialized construction activities, while civil engineering remained stable.
Order books were described as normal, and employment increased. The sector’s capacity utilization rate reached 72%.
At the same time, 23% of construction firms reported raw material supply difficulties, while 30% of business leaders described cash flow conditions as “difficult.”
Outlook for Q2 2026 expectations
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, manufacturing firms expect an increase in production.
This anticipated rise is linked to stronger activity in the food industry, chemical industry, automotive industry, and manufacture of electrical equipment, partially offset by declines in the paper and cardboard industry and textiles.
Employment in manufacturing is expected to remain stable overall.
The extractive industry is projected to contract again in Q2 2026, mainly due to lower phosphate production.
The report notes that companies expect a decline in production, with a corresponding expected decrease in employment.
Energy sector projections
Energy production is expected to increase further in the second quarter, driven by electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning activities. However, employment is forecast to decline during the same period.
The environmental sector is expected to maintain stable production and employment levels, particularly in water collection, treatment, and distribution activities.
Construction sector set for further expansion
The construction sector is expected to continue its upward trend in Q2 2026.
The HCP notes that this growth will result from increased activity in building construction and specialized construction activities, alongside stability in civil engineering.
The sector is also expected to see a rise in employment.
