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Agadir – Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% through the end of 2026 as policymakers prioritize caution amid mounting global inflationary risks, according to Attijari Global Research (AGR).
AGR forecasts a prolonged monetary pause, arguing that Morocco’s central bank is likely to maintain its current policy stance until there is greater clarity on the impact of persistent energy price shocks on imported inflation.
“We anticipate a prolonged monetary pause until the end of 2026, pending an assessment of the extent of the energy shock and its impact on imported inflation,” the report states.
AGR believes that a gradual stabilization of international Brent crude oil prices, coupled with the continuation of Morocco’s medium-term disinflation trend, could pave the way for renewed monetary easing from the second half of 2027.
The report says Bank Al-Maghrib’s decision to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in June reflects a prudent approach as global economic uncertainties continue to weigh on inflation prospects.
According to AGR, prolonged energy market volatility, accelerating international inflation, and tighter monetary policies adopted by major central banks could push Morocco’s inflation rate above 1.5%, and potentially close to 2% year-on-year by 2027.
Bank Al-Maghrib maintained its key interest rate at 2.25% during its second monetary policy meeting of 2026, a decision widely anticipated by financial markets. The move marked the fifth consecutive meeting in which the central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged.
The current monetary pause follows an easing cycle between June 2024 and March 2025, when Bank Al-Maghrib lowered its benchmark rate by a cumulative 75 basis points through three successive 25-basis-point cuts aimed at supporting economic activity while keeping inflation within its target range.
AGR’s outlook suggests that, barring a significant easing of external inflationary pressures, Morocco’s central bank is likely to remain focused on preserving price stability over the coming months, with any additional rate cuts expected to remain off the table until at least 2027.
