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Rabat – OPEC+ has agreed on another rise in oil production targets starting in August, a decision that comes at a delicate moment for global markets as prices fall and supply routes begin to reopen.
The alliance confirmed on Sunday that it will raise output by 188,000 barrels per day. This step follows similar adjustments in June and July, part of a broader effort to restore volumes after earlier cuts. Yet the reality on the ground has not fully matched these decisions.
The recent war between the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted one of the world’s most critical oil corridors. The Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline for exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, saw tanker traffic slow sharply. As a result, much of the planned increase remained theoretical rather than visible in actual shipments.
A fragile return of supply
OPEC figures show a steep drop in production earlier this year, from 42.77 million barrels per day in February to 33.13 million in May. June brought a partial recovery, supported by efforts to facilitate exports from some producers, including the United Arab Emirates. Even so, output still sits below levels seen before the war.
Prices tell a different story. Brent crude now trades near $72 per barrel, far from the highs above $120 reached during the peak of tensions. Several factors explain this decline. Demand from China has slowed, while producers outside the Middle East have increased exports. At the same time, a coordinated release of strategic reserves has added more oil to the market.
For analysts, the situation remains uncertain. “The group continues to reverse its earlier cuts as expected,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “The key question now concerns tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of demand recovery, especially in China.”
A preliminary understanding between Washington and Tehran has also influenced market sentiment. Traders now anticipate a gradual return to more stable supply conditions, though doubts persist.
Tensions within the group
Beyond external pressures, OPEC+ faces internal strain. The United Arab Emirates left the alliance in late April after disagreements over production limits. The country sought greater freedom to align output with its capacity.
Iraq has also called for higher quotas, a position that adds another layer of complexity. Although the alliance counts 21 members, only a smaller circle of producers drives monthly output decisions.
The current strategy aims to reverse a 1.65 million barrel per day cut agreed in 2023. After the UAE’s departure, the remaining core members still have about 379,000 barrels per day to reintroduce to the market.
Another increase in September could complete that process. The group is set to meet again on August 2, a date that may prove decisive.
For now, the oil market stands between cautious recovery and lingering uncertainty. Supply begins to return, but confidence has yet to fully follow.
