Agadir – Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) released today a new economic outlook predicting the country’s economy to accelerate in the third quarter of 2026 and projecting growth at 5.4%, citing a recovery in industry and strong agricultural performance.
HCP’s latest outlook estimated that the national economy grew by an average of 4.7% during the first six months of the year, driven primarily by the recovery of agricultural activity and the sustained performance of the services sector.
The institution said the economy expanded by 4.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, followed by an estimated 4.8% growth in the second quarter, as favorable rainfall boosted agricultural production while domestic demand remained strong.
Economy remains resilient in first half of 2026
HCP expects economic growth to strengthen further in the third quarter, reaching 5.4% year-on-year, supported by a gradual recovery in secondary sectors, including manufacturing and extractive industries.
According to the report, agriculture remained the main engine of growth during the first half of the year. Agricultural value added increased by 18.4% in the first quarter and is estimated to have grown by 20.5% in the second quarter, benefiting from favorable winter rainfall.
The services sector also maintained solid momentum, expanding by 4.3% in the first quarter thanks to strong performances in tourism, transport, and trade.
Looking ahead, HCP expects industrial activity to recover in the third quarter as global trade improves and demand strengthens. Extractive industries are also expected to benefit from the easing of U.S. tariff barriers on fertilizers.
Domestic demand continued to boost economic growth throughout the first half of the year, the report noted.
Household consumption rose by 4.6% in the first quarter and is estimated to have increased by 4.7% in the second quarter, supported by improving rural incomes and a rebound in spending related to Eid Al-Adha.
Investment also remained resilient, while financing conditions stayed favorable as Bank Al-Maghrib maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% and increased liquidity injections into the banking system.
HCP estimates that credit to the economy expanded by 10% in the second quarter, while the money supply increased by 12.1%.
Inflation, which stood at -0.1% in the first quarter, is estimated to have reached 1.1% in the second quarter and is expected to average 1.2% during the third quarter.
External risks continue to cloud the outlook
Despite the positive outlook, HCP warned that external risks remain elevated.
The balance of risks is “slightly tilted to the downside,” the latest outlook said, citing uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on energy prices, international trade, and production costs.
The report also noted that foreign trade continued to weigh on overall growth as imports outpaced exports, widening the trade deficit and increasing the economy’s financing needs.
While exports are expected to recover in the third quarter, growing by 10.2% following disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, imports are projected to rise even faster, by 12.4%, driven by sustained domestic demand.
